by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2011 11:30:00 AM

Earlier today the BLS reported:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in March, a smaller increase than in the previous two months. ... The shelter index increased 0.1 percent for the sixth month in a row, with rent and owners' equivalent rent both increasing 0.1 percent in March, as they did in February.

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.6% annualized rate) in March. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (3.0% annualized rate) during the month.

Over the last 12 months, core CPI has increased 1.2%, median CPI has increased 1.2%, and trimmed-mean CPI increased 1.5%.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has a discussion of a number of measures of inflation: Measuring Inflation

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows these three measure of inflation on a year-over-year basis.

These measures all show that year-over-year inflation is still low, but increasing lately.

Note: You can see the median CPI details for March here.

A little good news: Core CPI increased at an annualized rate of 1.6% (down from 2.4% in February), median CPI 1.6% annualized in March, and trimmed-mean CPI increased 3.0% annualized (high, but down from 3.8% annualized last month).

With the slack in the system, I expect these core measures to stay below 2% this year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2011 10:04:00 AM

The preliminary April Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 69.6 in April from 67.5 in March.

Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.

This was slightly above the consensus forecast of 69.0.

In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices.

This low reading is probably due to $4 per gallon gasoline prices.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2011 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in March and rose at an annual rate of 6.0 percent for the first quarter as a whole. Manufacturing output advanced 0.7 percent in March, its fourth consecutive month of strong expansion; factory production climbed at an annual rate of 9.1 percent in the first quarter. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines rose 0.6 percent in March, while the output of utilities increased 1.7 percent after declining significantly in the preceding two months. At 93.6 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production was 5.9 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry rose 0.5 percentage point to 77.4 percent, a rate 3.0 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.4% is still "3.0 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010" - and below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in March to 93.6, however February was revised down from 93.0 to 92.8. So the increase was reported at 0.8% but would have been 0.6% without the downward revision.

Production is still 7.0% below the pre-recession levels at the end of 2007.

The consensus was for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in March, and an increase to 77.4% (from 76.3%) for Capacity Utilization. So this was close to expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2011 08:30:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved at an accelerated pace in April. The general business conditions index rose for a fifth consecutive month, reaching 21.7, its highest level in a year [up from 17.5]. The new orders index jumped 17 points, to 22.3, and the shipments index shot up 27 points to 28.3. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received rose to their highest levels in more than a year, indicating that price increases continued to accelerate.

The index for number of employees climbed to 23.1 [from 9.1], while the average workweek index edged down to 10.3. Future indexes continued to convey great optimism about the six-month outlook, and the capital spending and technology spending indexes were noticeably higher.

This was above expectations of a reading of 17.0. This is the first regional survey released for April and shows that manufacturing is continuing to expand.

Note: I'll post on inflation later when the median CPI is available. The BLS reported:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in March, a smaller increase than in the previous two months."

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2011 11:57:00 PM

Voit released their Q1 CRE reports today. These reports are for several cities in the west: Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange County, Las Vegas, and more (these are for several categories of CRE - offices, retail, industrial). There is plenty of detail for those interested in CRE.

The following graphs show vacancy rate vs. new deliveries for offices in Orange County, San Diego and for the Inland Empire.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Voit for Orange County (not labeled).

New deliveries stopped a little earlier in Orange County than in some other areas, possibly because of all the subprime companies going under in 2007.

The fewer deliveries have helped, and the vacancy rate is starting to fall. But look back at the '90s - it took several years of falling vacancy rates before new deliveries started hitting the market. It will probably be a few years again this time too.

The 2nd graph is for San Diego (only back to 1999 - so we can't see the early '90s bust).

For San Diego, new deliveries didn't stop completely, and the vacancy rate has only declined slightly. Still net absorption is positive, but there probably won't be much new construction for a few years.

The last graph is for the Inland Empire.

Once again new deliveries have slowed sharply, but the vacancy rate still increased slightly in Q1.

The good news for employment and GDP is that new office construction in these areas can't fall much further. The bad news for construction employment and GDP is that construction probably won't increase significantly for a few years.

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2011 07:44:00 PM

From the CDC: CDC Study Finds Suicide Rates Rise and Fall with Economy

The overall suicide rate rises and falls in connection with the economy, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study released online today by the American Journal of Public Health. The study, "Impact of Business Cycles on the U.S. Suicide Rates, 1928–2007" is the first to examine the relationships between age-specific suicide rates and business cycles. The study found the strongest association between business cycles and suicide among people in prime working ages, 25-64 years old.
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• The overall suicide rate generally rose in recessions like the Great Depression (1929-1933), the end of the New Deal (1937-1938), the Oil Crisis (1973-1975), and the Double-Dip Recession (1980-1982) and fell in expansions like the WWII period (1939-1945) and the longest expansion period (1991-2001) in which the economy experienced fast growth and low unemployment.

• The largest increase in the overall suicide rate occurred in the Great Depression (1929-1933)—it surged from 18.0 in 1928 to 22.1 (all-time high) in 1932 (the last full year in the Great Depression)—a record increase of 22.8% in any four-year period in history. It fell to the lowest point in 2000.

• Suicide rates of two elderly groups (65-74 years and 75 years and older) and the oldest middle-age group (55-64) experienced the most significant decline from 1928 to 2007.

There is no data yet for the recent recession, but suicide rates probably increased significantly. This is another impact of the housing bubble - and there is no recovery for the families who lost someone to suicide.

The good news in this study is the long term decline in elderly suicide rates, probably because of improved access to medical care.