by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2011 10:46:00 AM

For discussion (I have no special insights - just hoping for the best).

• From the WSJ: Clashes After Egypt's Army Calls for End to Protests

• From the NY Times: Clashes Erupt in Cairo Between Mubarak’s Allies and Foes

• From al Jazeera: Live blog Feb 2 - Egypt protests

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2011 08:15:00 AM

ADP reports:

Private-sector employment increased by 187,000 from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from November to December was revised down by 50,000 to 247,000 from the previously reported increase of 297,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests solid growth of private nonfarm payroll employment heading into the New Year. The recent pattern of rising employment gains since the middle of last year appears to be intact, as the average gain over December and January (217,000) is well above the average gain over the prior six months (52,000). Strength was evident within all major industries and across all size business tracked in the ADP Report.
...
In January, construction employment dropped 1,000. The total decline in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,311,000.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

This was slightly above the consensus forecast of an increase of about 150,000 private sector jobs in January.

The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 150,000 payroll jobs in January, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, and for the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 9.5%.

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2011 07:26:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 11.7 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.
...
"Applications increased this week relative to the holiday week [Martin Luther King, Jr Day]," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "Looking over the past two weeks, purchase applications are flat, and refinance applications are down about five percent."
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.81 percent from 4.80 percent, with points decreasing to 1.02 from 1.19 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four-week moving average of the purchase index suggests weak existing home sales through the first few months of 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2011 11:08:00 PM

From Dina ElBoghdady at the WaPo: Low rates prompting more 'cash-in' refinances

In the fourth quarter, 46 percent of borrowers who refinanced their primary mortgages brought cash to settlement to lower the balance on their loans, Freddie Mac said. That's the highest share of so-called "cash-in" refinances since the company started tracking the numbers in 1985.

Some people are doing 'cash in' refis because they have negative equity, others to avoid PMI, and apparently a large number are bringing cash to closing to meet conforming loan limits:

Among them is Amy Rifkind, an attorney who wrote a check for about $70,000 when she refinanced her home ... By doing that, Rifkind and her husband brought down their loan balance below the $417,000 mark and secured a 4.25 percent rate.

Talk about deleveraging - we've come a long way from the 'cash out' craze.

by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2011 08:45:00 PM

Earlier:
• A little color on the economic data and my current economic outlook.
• U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 12.62 million SAAR in January

Fannie Mae reported that the serious delinquency rate decreased to 4.50% in November from 4.52% in October. Freddie Mac reported that the serious delinquency rate decreased to 3.84% in December from 3.85% in November. (Note: Fannie reports a month behind Freddie).

These are loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Some of the rapid increase over the last couple of years was probably because of foreclosure moratoriums, and also because loans in trial mods were considered delinquent until the modifications were made permanent. As modifications have become permanent, they are no longer counted as delinquent.

The increases for Freddie Mac in October and November were probably related to the new foreclosure moratoriums. Now it appears the rate has started to decrease again.

by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2011 04:47:00 PM

Please see the previous post for a little color on the economic data.

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 12.62 million SAAR in January. That is up 17.5% from January 2010, and up 1.0% from the sales rate last month (Dec 2010).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for January (red, light vehicle sales of 12.62 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

This is the highest sales rate since August 2008, excluding Cash-for-clunkers in August 2009.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate. The current sales rate is still near the bottom of the '90/'91 recession - when there were fewer registered drivers and a smaller population.

This was at the consensus estimate of 12.6 million SAAR.