by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2011 08:30:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

he Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in January. The general business conditions index rose 2 points to 11.9. The new orders index moved up 10 points to 12.4, and the shipments index surged 18 points to 25.4. After a sharp decline last month, the inventories index rose above zero. Employment indexes also climbed into positive territory.

This was below expectations for an increase to 14.0.

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2011 08:27:00 PM

Tomorrow I will be attending the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs.

A few of the sessions:
• Is the recovery real for apartments?
• To build or not to build: That is the question.
• Reality Check: Have valuations really firmed or are we in bubble 2.0?

I'll report on what I hear ... (I'll be posting during the day)

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2011 03:45:00 PM

From the Irish Times: EU ministers seek rescue fund boost

Euro zone finance ministers called today for an increase in the effective lending capacity of the union's rescue fund, but Germany said there was no urgency and it would be March before a firm plan was in place.
...
"There will not be results today, the market developments in the last week have, thank God, taken any urgency out of these discussions," [German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble] told reporters.

The expectation is the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) will eventually be increased from €440 billion to €700 billion. The European financial crisis is far from over ...

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending January 15th
• Schedule for Week of January 16th

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2011 11:49:00 AM

A weekly update on hotels from HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US weekly results for week ending 8 Jan.

In year-over-year comparisons, occupancy increased 5.7 percent to 42.8 percent, average daily rate was up 2.0 percent to US$93.43, and revenue per available room finished the week up 7.8 percent to US$40.00.

The following graph shows the four week moving average of the occupancy rate as a percent of the median occupancy rate from 2000 through 2007.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Note: I've changed this graph. Since this is the percent of the median from 2000 to 2007, the percent can be greater than 100%.

The down spike in 2001 was due to 9/11. The up spike in late 2005 was hurricane related (Katrina and Rita). The dashed line is the current level.

This shows how deep the slump was in 2009 compared to the period following the 2001 recession. This also shows hotels are recovering, but the occupancy rates are still below normal.

RevPAR is up compared to the same week last year, but still down from 2009.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2011 09:03:00 AM

Writing in the NY Times, Monica Davey reviews the budget situation in several states: Budget Worries Push Governors to Same Mind-Set

In years past, new governors have introduced themselves in inaugural remarks filled with cheery, soaring hopes; plans for expansions to education, health care and social services; and the outlines of new, ambitious local projects.

But an examination of more than two dozen opening addresses of incoming governors in recent days shows that such upbeat visions were often eclipsed by worries about jobs, money and budget gaps.
...
While state revenues — shrunken as a result of the recession — are finally starting to improve somewhat, federal stimulus money that had propped up state budgets is vanishing and costs are rising, all of which has left state leaders bracing for what is next. For now, states have budget gaps of $26 billion, by some estimates, and foresee shortfalls of at least $82 billion as they look to next year’s budgets.

This is a key issue this year - these budget cuts and tax hikes will be a drag on growth and employment ...

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending January 15th
• Schedule for Week of January 16th

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2011 08:22:00 PM

Here is an article on housing in Spain (in Spanish): Aquí vivo solo (ht Jim)

Google translate page:

There is only life in a corner with nothing around, rather than highways, roads, farmland, a corner living Paula and Pavel and another 1,200 people. Un 4% de lo previsto. 4% of schedule. Hay muchas formas de vivir solo. There are many ways to live alone. Esta es una de ellas. This is one of them. La urbanización fue proyectada para 30.000, más de un tercio de la población de Guadalajara capital. The complex was designed for 30,000 ...

Check out the photos and captions too! The one guy has a golf course to himself ... at least the grass is green.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending January 15th
• Schedule for Week of January 16th