by Bill McBride on 1/15/2011 11:45:00 AM
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Three key housing reports will be released this week: January homebuilder confidence on Tuesday, December housing starts on Wednesday, and December existing home sales on Thursday.
Note: Some large bank reporting included for possible comments on foreclosures.
Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day. All US markets will be closed.
7:15 AM ET: Philly Fed President Charles Plosser speaks in Santiago, Chile "Thoughts on the Scope of Monetary Policy"
8:00 AM ET: Citigroup Fourth Quarter 2010
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 14.0, up from 10.57 in December.
10 AM: The January NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 17, up slightly from 16 in December. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for the last 3 1/2 years.
Early: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). This index showed expansion (52.0) in November, the highest mark since December 2007. This index usually leads investment in non-residential structures (hotels, malls, office) by 9 to 12 months.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly since then.
8:00 AM: Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs Fourth Quarter 2010
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for December. After collapsing following the housing bubble, housing starts have mostly moved sideways at a very depressed level for the last two years.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.
Total housing starts were at 555 thousand (SAAR) in November, up 3.9% from the revised October rate of 534 thousand. Single-family starts increased 6.9% to 465 thousand in November.
The consensus is for a slight decrease to 550,000 (SAAR) in December.
7:30 AM: Morgan Stanley Fourth Quarter 2010
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims increased last week to 445,000, but the trend has been down over the last few months. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 445,000 last week.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.9 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December, up about 5% from the 4.68 million SAAR in November. Economist Tom Lawler is projecting sales of 5.13 million in December.
This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in November 2010 (4.68 million SAAR) were 5.6% higher than in October, and were 27.9% lower than November 2009.
In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices). The months-of-supply will probably be in the low 8 months range, down sharply from the 9.5 months reported for November. However some of the decline is seasonal, and inventory should increase again in February.
10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for January. This survey showed stronger expansion in November and December after showing contraction in the early fall. The consensus is for a reading of 20.4, down slightly from the revised 20.8 in December.
10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for December. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase for this index.
8:00 AM: Bank of America Fourth Quarter 2010
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC might have a busy Friday afternoon ...