by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 10:17:00 PM

Notes: this data is not seasonally adjusted. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possible hints about the trade report for November.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

There is a strong seasonal pattern for loaded inbound traffic, and traffic was up about 15% compared to November 2009.

After stalling out over the summer, loaded outbound traffic is up sharply over the last two months, and was up 19% YoY from November 2009.

This suggests that the trade deficit with China (and other Asian countries) might have declined somewhat in November (seasonally adjusted).

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 07:03:00 PM

Shadowy Reaper
A grim Black Friday for some
Nearing your banks door?
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Southern Bank, Poplar Bluff, Missouri, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Southern Bank, Batesville, Arkansas

As of September 30, 2010, First Southern Bank had approximately $191.8 million in total assets and $155.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $22.8 million. ... First Southern Bank is the 156th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Arkansas.

From the FDIC: Farmers & Merchants Savings Bank, Manchester, Iowa, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community National Bank, Lino Lakes, Minnesota

As of September 30, 2010, Community National Bank had approximately $31.6 million in total assets and $28.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $3.7 million. ... Community National Bank is the 157th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eighth in Minnesota.

The FDIC is busy on probably the last closing day of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 06:09:00 PM

Zombied bank kill shot
U.A.B. casualty
Fewer walking dead
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of United Americas Bank, National Association, Atlanta, Georgia

As of September 30, 2010, United Americas Bank, N.A. had approximately $242.3 million in total assets and $193.8 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $75.8 million. ... United Americas Bank, N.A. is the 155th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 21st in Georgia.

More Georgia ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 05:31:00 PM

To: Bad bank trio
Stockings filled with coal lumps.
From: Ms. Santa Bair
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: 1st United Bank, Boca Raton, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Bank of Miami, National Association, Coral Gables, Florida

As of September 30, 2010, The Bank of Miami, N.A. had approximately $448.2 million in total assets and $374.2 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $64.0 million. ... The Bank of Miami, N.A. is the 152nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 29th in Florida.

From the FDIC: Bank of the Ozarks, Little Rock, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Chestatee State Bank, Dawsonville, Georgia

As of September 30, 2010, Chestatee State Bank had approximately $244.4 million in total assets and $240.5 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $75.3 million. ... Chestatee State Bank is the 153rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 19th in Georgia.

From the FDIC: Peoples Bank of East Tennessee, Madisonville, Tennessee, Assumes All of the Deposits of Appalachian Community Bank, F.S.B., McCaysville, Georgia

As of September 30, 2010, Appalachian Community Bank, F.S.B. had approximately $68.2 million in total assets and $76.4 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $26.0 million. ... Appalachian Community Bank, F.S.B. is the 154th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 20th in Georgia.

Georgia on the FDIC's mind ... again.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 04:08:00 PM

Note: Obama is signing the tax legislation right now.

CR Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler:

"Based on data received so far, I have revised upward my estimate for existing home sales in November, and I now expect a seasonally adjusted annual rate of around 4.61 million for November."

CR Note: Earlier Tom estimated 4.57 million SAAR, so this is a minor change. Existing home sales for November will be released on Wednesday December 22nd at 10 AM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 01:36:00 PM

Here is an update to a graph showing total housing starts and the percent vacant housing units (owner and rental) in the U.S.

Over a year ago, I used this chart to argue that there would be no "V shaped" recovery, and that housing starts wouldn't rebound rapidly. See: Housing Starts and Vacant Units: No "V" Shaped Recovery. In that earlier post, I also argued that the unemployment rate would remain high throughout 2010. Hey, housing matters!

Note: Housing starts are through November, and the combined vacancy rate through Q3 based on the Census Bureau vacancy rates for owner occupied and rental housing.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The good news is the total vacancy rate has started to decline. We know that the homebuilders will complete a record low number of housing units in 2010, and the declining vacancy rate suggests more households are being formed than net housing units added to the housing stock, or in other words, the excess supply is being absorbed.

The bad news is there is a long way to go. In some areas there will probably be a pickup in building next year, but the recovery in construction will remain sluggish until more of the excess supply is absorbed.

Looking at the graph, the vacancy rate continued to climb even after housing starts fell off a cliff. Initially this was because of a significant number of completions. Then some hidden inventory (like some 2nd homes) probably became available for sale or for rent, and also some households doubled up because of tough economic times. As the economy improves, the people that doubled up will probably be forming households - and that will help absorb the excess supply. But it will take time.