by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2010 05:07:00 PM

This will be a very busy week. The current plan is for the Senate to vote on the tax legislation on Monday at 3:00 pm. The House of Representatives is expected to vote later in the week, and then Congress plans to adjourn for the year on Friday.

Two key housing reports will be released this week: November housing starts (Thursday) and homebuilder confidence in December (Wednesday). Also November retail sales will be released on Tuesday, and the Fed will release the November industrial production and capacity utilization report on Wednesday. Also there is a Fed FOMC meeting on Tuesday, although no changes are expected.

----- Monday, Dec 13th -----
9:00 AM ET: CoreLogic Q3 Negative Equity report. For Q2, CoreLogic reported that 11 million residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity (about 23 percent of properties with mortgages).

----- Tuesday, Dec 14th -----
7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November. This index has been showing that small businesses remain pessimistic, and the survey also shows that the major concern is the lack of customers.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the small business optimism index through October. Although the index increased to 91.7 in October (highest since May), it is still at a recessionary level according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

8:30 AM: Retail Sales for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase from October. (0.6% increases ex-auto).

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in producer prices.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for October. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in inventories.

2:15 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No changes are expected to either interest rates or QE2.

----- Wednesday, Dec 15th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly since then.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices. The consensus for core CPI is an increase of 0.1%.

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, a turnaround from the surprise decline in November of -11.1. These regional surveys have shown a slight pickup following the slowdown in Q3 with the exception of this NY Fed survey.

9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production was unchanged in October, and production is still 7.3% below the pre-recession levels at the end of 2007.

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production in November, and an increase to 75.0% (from 74.8%) for Capacity Utilization.

10 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. This index collapsed following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The consensus is for a reading of 16, the same is in November (still very depressed).

----- Thursday, Dec 16th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims has been trending down over the last couple of months. The consensus is for a slight increase to 425,000 from 421,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for November. Housing starts also collapsed following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.

This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total housing starts were at 519 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 11.7% from the revised September rate. Single-family starts decreased 1.1% to 436 thousand in October.

The consensus is for an increase to 550,000 (SAAR) in November from 519,000 in October.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for December. This survey showed expansion last month after showing contraction in the early fall. The consensus is for a reading of 14.1, down from 22.5 in November.

----- Friday, Dec 17th -----
10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for November. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in the index.

After 4:00 PM: The FDIC might have a busy Friday afternoon ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2010 11:51:00 AM

The trend of falling vacancy rates continues ...

From Eric Wolff at the North County Times: Rental vacancy rates fall as people lose homes

Vacancy rates for North San Diego County apartments fell 1.2 percentage points to 4.3 percent in the fall, the fourth straight drop, according to the biannual survey conducted by the San Diego County Apartment Association.

... and landlords took the opportunity to raise rents 0.8 percent ... The report attributed the drop in vacancy to the ongoing foreclosure crisis, as people evicted from homes need somewhere to live, and to a modest increase in employment.

From Josh Brown at the Virginian-Pilot: Rents rise, vacancies drop for apartments in Hampton Roads

Rough times in the housing market may be boosting demand for apartments in Hampton Roads, according to local experts and a new report.

... In the past year, the number of renters in the region has climbed by nearly 2,000, the largest uptick since 2005.

From the Aurora Sentinel: Denver metro vacancies for homes, condos to rent at lowest since 2001

It’s slim pickings for those seeking a single-family home to rent.

Vacancies in for-rent condos, single-family homes and other small properties across metro Denver fell to 2.9 percent during third quarter of this year - the lowest third-quarter rate since 2001.

This fits with the Reis vacancy survey (showing apartment vacancy rates fell in Q3 to 7.2% from 7.8% in Q2), the NMHC apartment survey, and the Census Bureau's quarterly rental vacancy rate.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2010 08:30:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Dec 10, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List declined by one to 919 this week after three additions and four removals. However, total assets increased by $1.1 billion to $411.4 billion.

The three additions include Intervest National Bank, New York, NY ($2.1 billion) and the two thrift subsidiaries of Great River Holding Company -- RiverWood Bank, Baxter, MN ($174 million) and RiverWood Bank, Bemidji, MN ($177 million).

The removals include the two failures this week -- Paramount Bank, Farmington, MI ($253 million) and Earthstar Bank, Southhampton, PA ($113 million). The other two removals are Millennium BCP Bank, National Association, Newark, NJ, which completed a voluntary liquidation on October 15, 2010; and Oceanside Bank, Jacksonville, FL, which was acquired by The Jacksonville Bank in an unassisted merger.

Next week, we anticipate the OCC will release its actions for November 2010.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2010 11:36:00 PM

Enjoy - a rearranged version of Adam Sandler's hit for the econ nerds out there. Jodi Beggs is an economist and Ph.D. candidate at Harvard University ... she has a website with a series of microeconomics lectures at Economists Do It With Models and she gave a talk at the AEA humor sesssion earlier this year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2010 09:32:00 PM

The current plan is for the Senate to vote on the legislation on Monday at 3:00 pm. The House of Representatives is expected to vote later in the week, and then Congress plans to adjourn for the year on Friday.

From the LA Times: Sen. Bernie Sanders ends filibuster

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has ended a marathon filibuster of the proposed tax compromise, ceding control of the Senate floor after more than 8 1/2 hours.

"It has been a very long day," he said as he concluded his remarks, including a five-hour period in which he spoke without interruption. "... I think we can come up with a better proposal which better reflects the needs of the middle class."

I think so too, but it won't happen. This is basically a done deal.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2010 06:13:00 PM

Sisyphean bank
Paramount's rising assets
Rolled over peak

Tremor in The Force
Earthstar has cleared the planet
Millions extinguished
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Level One Bank, Farmington Hills, Michigan, Assumes All of the Deposits of Paramount Bank, Farmington Hills, Michigan

As of September 30, 2010, Paramount Bank had approximately $252.7 million in total assets and $213.6 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $90.2 million. ... Paramount Bank is the 150th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fifth in Michigan.

From the FDIC: Polonia Bank, Huntingdon Valley, Pennsylvania, Assumes All of the Deposits of Earthstar Bank, Southampton, Pennsylvania

As of September 30, 2010, Earthstar Bank had approximately $112.6 million in total assets and $104.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $22.9 million. ... Earthstar Bank is the 151st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Pennsylvania.

The FDIC is back in action!