Saturday, December 11, 2010

Schedule for Week of December 12th

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2010 05:07:00 PM

This will be a very busy week. The current plan is for the Senate to vote on the tax legislation on Monday at 3:00 pm. The House of Representatives is expected to vote later in the week, and then Congress plans to adjourn for the year on Friday.

Two key housing reports will be released this week: November housing starts (Thursday) and homebuilder confidence in December (Wednesday). Also November retail sales will be released on Tuesday, and the Fed will release the November industrial production and capacity utilization report on Wednesday. Also there is a Fed FOMC meeting on Tuesday, although no changes are expected.

----- Monday, Dec 13th -----

9:00 AM ET: CoreLogic Q3 Negative Equity report. For Q2, CoreLogic reported that 11 million residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity (about 23 percent of properties with mortgages).

----- Tuesday, Dec 14th -----

7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November. This index has been showing that small businesses remain pessimistic, and the survey also shows that the major concern is the lack of customers.

Small Business Optimism Index Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the small business optimism index through October. Although the index increased to 91.7 in October (highest since May), it is still at a recessionary level according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

8:30 AM: Retail Sales for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase from October. (0.6% increases ex-auto).

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in producer prices.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for October. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in inventories.

2:15 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No changes are expected to either interest rates or QE2.

----- Wednesday, Dec 15th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly since then.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices. The consensus for core CPI is an increase of 0.1%.

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, a turnaround from the surprise decline in November of -11.1. These regional surveys have shown a slight pickup following the slowdown in Q3 with the exception of this NY Fed survey.

9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November.

Industrial ProductionThis graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production was unchanged in October, and production is still 7.3% below the pre-recession levels at the end of 2007.

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production in November, and an increase to 75.0% (from 74.8%) for Capacity Utilization.

10 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. This index collapsed following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The consensus is for a reading of 16, the same is in November (still very depressed).

----- Thursday, Dec 16th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims has been trending down over the last couple of months. The consensus is for a slight increase to 425,000 from 421,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for November. Housing starts also collapsed following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThis graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total housing starts were at 519 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 11.7% from the revised September rate. Single-family starts decreased 1.1% to 436 thousand in October.

The consensus is for an increase to 550,000 (SAAR) in November from 519,000 in October.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for December. This survey showed expansion last month after showing contraction in the early fall. The consensus is for a reading of 14.1, down from 22.5 in November.

----- Friday, Dec 17th -----

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for November. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in the index.

After 4:00 PM: The FDIC might have a busy Friday afternoon ...