by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2010 02:22:00 PM

Moody's reported (via Bloomberg) today that the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index declined 4% in June. This is a repeat sales measure of commercial real estate prices.

Below is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

Notes: Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted. Moody's CRE price index is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller - but there are far fewer commercial sales - and that can impact prices.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

CRE prices only go back to December 2000.

The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).

It is important to remember that the number of transactions is very low and there are a large percentage of distressed sales.

Commercial real estate values are now down 41.3% from the peak in late 2007.

As I've noted every month, this is a very thin market that is skewed by distressed sales. For more, see John Murray at PIMCO's caution about the CPPI index: PIMCO U.S. Commercial Real Estate Project and MIT Professor David Geltner comments that appear on the Real Estate Analytics LLC website on the lower right under "Professor's Corner".

Note: there is also a new CRE index from CoStar, see: CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices decline sharply in June

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2010 01:02:00 PM

The Census Bureau released a number of tables from the 2009 American Housing Survey today (report to be released in October).

The survey showed:

76.4 million owner occupied housing units in 2009.

24.2 million were owned free and clear (no mortgage). That is 31.7%.

26.8 million primary mortgages were originated in 2004 or earlier.

12.7 million primary mortgages were originated prior to 2000.

24.1 million primary mortgage had interest rates above 6%.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the number of primary mortgages by interest rate.

Only 6.2 million of primary mortgages were under 5% (as of 2009). This will increase in 2010, but quite a few homeowners had primary mortgage interest rates above 6%. And the BEA recently reported that the effective rate on all mortgages was still above 6% in Q2.

Of course many of these homeowners have second mortgages, or they can't qualify to refinance because or low property values or insufficient income.

It must be very frustrating for these homeowners when they see that Freddie Mac is reporting, via MarketWatch: Fixed-rate mortgages break record low

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.42% for the week ending Aug. 19, a record low since Freddie started tracking the rate in 1971.

There were at least 10.9 million homeowners with 2nd mortgages and another 800 thousand the 3 or more mortgages. Unfortunately that data includes another 5 million homeowners with the number of mortgages not reported.

There is much more data in the tables.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2010 10:00:00 AM

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index: Business Outlook Survey

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to ‐7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009 (see Chart). Indexes for new orders and
shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to ‐7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to ‐4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.

The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to ‐17.1 in August.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Philly index for the last 40 years.

This index turned down sharply in June and July and was negative in August for the first time since July 2009.

These surveys are timely, but noisy. However this is further evidence of a 2nd half slowdown.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2010 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 474,500.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 7 was 4,478,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,491,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 8,000 to 482,500.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. This is the highest level for initial claims - and also for the 4-week average - since November 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2010 07:30:00 PM

From Bob Egelko at the San Francisco Chronicle: Furloughs back on starting this Friday

The state Supreme Court allowed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Wednesday to resume unpaid furloughs of 144,000 state employees for three days a month, starting this Friday ... The governor ordered the new round of furloughs in late July, claiming executive authority to cut costs while the state faces a $19 billion deficit.

And from Michelle Cole at The Oregonian: With projected revenues dropping by as much as $1 billion, Oregon leaders debate what to do (ht Scott)

On Tuesday, Gov. Ted Kulongoski advised legislative leaders, school superintendents and agency directors that state economists expect tax collections to be down significantly more than the $577 million shortfall projected in May. ... Now state economists believe revenues will shrivel by an additional $200 million to $500 million, prompting Kulongoski to send a flurry of letters and notices warning of more cuts to schools and state services.

Just a couple reminders that there are more state and local cuts coming ...

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2010 03:51:00 PM

No, it is not a rap song ...

This is a story from Jim the Realtor about how one REO in a higher mid-priced area of San Diego (North Pacific Beach) has frozen the market. The list prices in this area were all over $500 per sq ft, and this REO sold for under $400 per sq ft.

Comp killer.

The REO is an older home, but with nice interior upgrades and an ocean view. Yeah - the yard needs work.