by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2015 02:07:00 PM

From the WSJ: Budget Deficit Totaled $488 Billion For Year Ended July, Down 9% From Year Earlier

The U.S. budget deficit rose in July but stood around 9% below its year-earlier level, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.

The budget outlook has improved this year as economic growth has boosted revenues, but outlays were significantly higher in July from a year earlier, in part due to calendar timing differences. The U.S. ran a $149 billion deficit in July, a month in which the government typically runs a deficit.
...
The Congressional Budget Office last week said it expected the U.S. would run a $425 billion deficit for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, down more than 12% from its earlier forecast of $486 billion and from the prior year’s $483 billion deficit.

The most recent CBO projection was for the fiscal 2015 budget deficit to be 2.7% of GDP. Right now it looks like fiscal 2015 will be under 2.4% (a significant improvement).

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2015 10:08:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The number of hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 and 4.9 million, respectively. ...
...
Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. ... There were 2.7 million quits in June, little changed from May.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for June, the most recent employment report was for July.

Click on graph for larger image.


Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings decreased in June to 5.249 million from 5.357 million in May.

The number of job openings (yellow) are up 11% year-over-year compared to June 2014.

Quits are up 11% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

This is another solid report.  It is a good sign that job openings are over 5 million - just off the all time high set last month - and that quits are increasing solidly year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2015 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Flat in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 7, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week to its highest level since May 2015. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) remained unchanged at 4.13 percent, with points decreasing to 0.31 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

Even with the increase in activity, refinance activity is very low.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000, and refinance activity will probably stay low for the rest of 2015.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 20% higher than a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2015 07:19:00 PM

From the WSJ: U.S. Oil Falls to Six-Year Low

Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell $1.88, or 4.2%, to settle at $43.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. ... U.S. oil to its lowest settlement since March 11, 2009, when the U.S. economy was still reeling from the financial crisis.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $1.23, or 2.4%, to $49.18 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. It is within $3 of its six-year low set in January.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.58 per gallon, well above the 6 year low of $2.02 per gallon set in January.

There are several reasons why gasoline prices are still so high, including: 1) it takes time for declines in oil prices to reach the pump, 2) there is a seasonal component (this is the driving season), and 3) supply issues in California. However, gasoline prices should follow oil prices down over the next several weeks.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS. Jobs openings increased in May to 5.363 million from 5.334 million in April. The number of job openings were up 16% year-over-year, and Quits were up 8% year-over-year.

• At 2:00 PM, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for July.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2015 02:39:00 PM

By request, here is a repeat of animations of the U.S population by age and distribution, from 1900 through 2060. The population data and estimates are from the Census Bureau (actual through 2010 and projections through 2060).

Note: For distribution, here are the same graphs using a slider (the user can look at individual slides).

There are many interesting points - the Depression baby bust, the baby boom, the 2nd smaller baby bust following the baby boom, the "echo" boom" and more. What jumps out at me are the improvements in health care. And also that the largest cohorts will all soon be under 40. Heck, in the last frame (2060), any remaining Boomers will be in those small (but growing) 95 to 99, and 100+ cohorts.

The first graph is by distribution (updates every 2 seconds).

The second graph is by age. Population is in thousands (not labeled)! Prior to 1940, the oldest group in the Census data was "75+".  From 1940 through 1985, the oldest group was "85+".  Starting in 1990, the oldest group is 100+.