by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2015 02:13:00 PM

Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.5 million SAAR in June. That is up 6.4% from July 2014, and up 3.3% from the 17.0 million annual sales rate last month.


Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 17.5 million SAAR from WardsAuto).

This was above to the consensus forecast of 17.2 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This was another strong month for auto sales. It appears 2015 will be the best year for light vehicle sales since 2001.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2015 10:16:00 AM

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased slightly in June:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during June 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,064.6 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised May estimate of $1,063.5 billion. The June figure is 12.0 percent above the June 2014 estimate of $950.3 billion.

Private spending decreased and public spending increased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $766.4 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised May estimate of $770.0 billion ...

In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $298.2 billion, 1.6 percent above the revised May estimate of $293.5 billion.
emphasis added

Note: Non-residential for offices and hotels is generally increasing, but spending for oil and gas has been declining. Early in the recovery, there was a surge in non-residential spending for oil and gas (because oil prices increased), but now, with falling prices, oil and gas is a drag on overall construction spending.

As an example, construction spending for private lodging is up 42% year-over-year, whereas spending for power (includes oil and gas) construction peaked in mid-2014 and is down 16% year-over-year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential spending has been increasing recently, and is 45% below the bubble peak.

Non-residential spending is only 5% below the peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars).

Public construction spending is now 8% below the peak in March 2009 and about 13% above the post-recession low.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 13%. Non-residential spending is up 15% year-over-year. Public spending is up 8% year-over-year.

Looking forward, all categories of construction spending should increase in 2015. Residential spending is still very low, non-residential is starting to pickup (except oil and gas), and public spending has also increasing after several years of austerity.

This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.6% increase, however spending for April and May was revised up significantly.  Overall, a solid report.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2015 09:44:00 AM

Note: This was released early.

The ISM manufacturing index suggested expansion in July. The PMI was at 52.7% in July, down from 53.5% in June. The employment index was at 52.7%, down from 55.5% in June, and the new orders index was at 56.5%, up from 56.0%.

From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2015 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 31st consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 74th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The July PMI® registered 52.7 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point below the June reading of 53.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 56.5 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the reading of 56 percent in June. The Production Index registered 56 percent, 2 percentage points above the June reading of 54 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.7 percent, 2.8 percentage points below the June reading of 55.5 percent, reflecting growing employment levels from June but at a slower rate. Inventories of raw materials registered 49.5 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the June reading of 53 percent. The Prices Index registered 44 percent, down 5.5 percentage points from the June reading of 49.5 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from the panel reflect a combination of optimism mixed with uncertainties about international markets and the impacts of the continuing decline in oil prices."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

This was below expectations of 53.7%, and indicates slower manufacturing expansion in July.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2015 08:36:00 AM

From the BEA, the Personal Income and Outlays report for June:

Personal income increased $68.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased less than 0.1 percent in June, in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in May. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in June, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in May. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in June, the same increase as in May.

The June price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent from June a year ago. The June PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.3 percent from June a year ago.

On inflation: the PCE price index was up 0.3% year-over-year (the decline in oil prices pushed down the headline price index).  However core PCE is only up 1.3% year-over-year - still way below the Fed's target.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2015 08:53:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 2, 2015

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.7, up from 53.5 in June. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 53.5% in June. The employment index was at 55.5%, and the new orders index was at 56.0%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.2 million SAAR in July from 17.1 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are up slightly and DOW futures are up 20 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $46.84 per barrel and Brent at $51.81 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $105, and Brent was at $106 - so prices are down over 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.65 per gallon (down about $0.85 per gallon from a year ago).