by Bill McBride on 8/01/2015 11:51:00 AM
Saturday, August 01, 2015
The key report this week is the July employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the July ISM manufacturing index and July vehicle sales, both on Monday, and the Trade Deficit on Wednesday.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.7, up from 53.5 in June.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 53.5% in June. The employment index was at 55.5%, and the new orders index was at 56.0%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.2 million SAAR in July from 17.1 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the June sales rate.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for June. The consensus is a 1.7% increase in orders.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in July, down from 238,000 in June.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through April. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $43.0 billion in June from $41.9 billion in May.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for index to increase to 56.2 from 56.0 in June.
10:00 AM: Speech by Fed Governor Jerome Powell, The Structure and Liquidity of Treasury Bond Markets, At the Brookings Institute Conference: Are There Structural Issues in the U.S. Bond Markets?, Washington, D.C.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 273 thousand from 267 thousand.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 212,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 223,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.3%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In June, the year-over-year change was over 2.9 million jobs.
As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for June from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for an increase of $17.4 billion in credit.
Posted by Bill McBride on 8/01/2015 11:51:00 AM