by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 08:37:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036,000. This is 11.1 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,165,000, but is 5.1 percent above the May 2014 rate of 986,000.

Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 680,000; this is 5.4 percent below the revised April figure of 719,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000.
emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:50:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. Total housing starts increased to 1.135 million (SAAR) in April. Single family starts increased to 733 thousand SAAR in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.090 million (SAAR) in May.

There has been some discussion if sustained 4% growth in the U.S. can be achieved. Here are two articles:

From Neil Irwin at the NY Times The Upshot: Jeb Bush Wants 4 Percent Growth. That Will Be Hard to Reach.

[F]or 4 percent growth to be realistic in the next presidential term — not just for a one-quarter spurt but on a sustained basis — one of two things must apply. Either the technocrats at places like the C.B.O. and the Fed must be wildly underestimating the nation’s growth potential today. Or a revolution in American productivity must be on the way. Neither of those are things that a president has much control over.

And from Matthew Klein at the Financial Times Alphaville: Jeb Bush’s growth goal isn’t outlandish

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 05:10:00 PM

This weekend I updated: Predicting the Next Recession.

In that post, I noted that I hadn't seen ECRI admit their recent series of recession calls were incorrect. Actually they have admitted an incorrect call, and here is their recent admission (ht M): The Greater Moderation

In line with the old adage, “never say never,” [ECRI's] September 2011 U.S. recession forecast did turn out to be a false alarm.

I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 01:30:00 PM

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.

The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.

The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 59 in June, up from 54 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June

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