Calculated Risk

Monday, June 15, 2015

ECRI Admits Incorrect Recession Call

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 05:10:00 PM

This weekend I updated: Predicting the Next Recession.

In that post, I noted that I hadn't seen ECRI admit their recent series of recession calls were incorrect. Actually they have admitted an incorrect call, and here is their recent admission (ht M): The Greater Moderation

In line with the old adage, “never say never,” [ECRI's] September 2011 U.S. recession forecast did turn out to be a false alarm.

I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!

Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 01:30:00 PM

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.

The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.

The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 59 in June, up from 54 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 09:29:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in May after falling 0.5 percent in April. The decline in April was larger than previously reported, but the rates of change for previous months were generally revised higher, leaving the level of the index in April slightly above its initial estimate. Manufacturing output decreased 0.2 percent in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. In May, the index for mining moved down 0.3 percent after declining more than 1 percent per month, on average, in the previous four months. The slower rate of decrease for mining output last month was due in part to a reduced pace of decline in the index for oil and gas well drilling and servicing. The output of utilities increased 0.2 percent in May. At 105.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.
emphasis added