by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2015 07:30:00 AM

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for January today. According to BKFS, 5.56% of mortgages were delinquent in January, down from 5.64% in December. BKFS reported that 1.61% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.35% in January 2014.

This gives a total of 7.17% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,701,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.
• 1,112,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.
• 815,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of ​​3,628,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in January. This is down from 4,315,000 in January 2014.

Click on graph for larger image.

From Black Knight:

The month’s data showed that both first-time and repeat foreclosure starts reached 12-month highs, although there was clear separation in the levels of increase between the two. According to Trey Barnes, Black Knight’s senior vice president of Loan Data Products, separation also continues to be seen between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states across multiple performance indicators.

“Overall foreclosure starts hit a 12-month high in January, and that held true when looking at both first-time and repeat foreclosure starts individually,” said Barnes. “Repeat foreclosure starts made up 51 percent of all foreclosure starts and increased 11 percent from December. In contrast, first-time foreclosure starts were up just a fraction of a percent from the month prior. Similarly, Black Knight found that January foreclosure starts jumped about 10 percent from December in judicial states as compared to just a 1.7 percent increase in non-judicial states. Judicial states are also seeing higher levels of both new problem loans and serious delinquencies (loans 90 or more days delinquent, but not yet in foreclosure) than non-judicial states, although volumes are down overall in both categories.

This is still mostly clearing out the backlog.

by Calculated Risk on 3/08/2015 07:54:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Greek Tensions Revived as Creditors Reject Reform List

The list of measures Greece’s government sent to euro region finance ministers last Friday, including the idea of hiring non-professional tax collectors such as tourists, is “far” from complete and the country probably won’t receive an aid disbursement this month, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Sunday.

Ouch.

Monday:
• Early, Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January

• At 10:00 AM ET, the Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of March 8, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are unchanged and DOW futures are up 12 (fair value).

Oil prices were mixed over the last week with WTI futures at $49.47 per barrel and Brent at $59.26 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $102, and Brent was at $108 - so prices are down around 50% year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up to $2.45 per gallon (down about $1.00 per gallon from a year ago).   Prices in California have risen significantly due to a refinery fire in February and a strike.

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 3/08/2015 11:49:00 AM

An update: Last year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group, Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate: Mostly Demographics and Long Term Trends, and The Future's so Bright ...

I pointed out that "even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics). The good news is that will change soon."

Changes in demographics are an important determinant of economic growth, and although most people focus on the aging of the "baby boomer" generation, the movement of younger cohorts into the prime working age is another key story in coming years. Here is a graph of the prime working age population (this is population, not the labor force) from 1948 through February 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

There was a huge surge in the prime working age population in the '70s, '80s and '90s - and the prime age population has been mostly flat recently (even declined a little).

The prime working age labor force grew even quicker than the population in the '70s and '80s due to the increase in participation of women. In fact, the prime working age labor force was increasing 3%+ per year in the '80s!

So when we compare economic growth to the '70s, '80, or 90's we have to remember this difference in demographics (the '60s saw solid economic growth as near-prime age groups increased sharply).

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and appears to have bottomed at the end of 2012.  The good news is the prime working age group has started to grow again, and should be growing solidly by 2020 - and this should boost economic activity in the years ahead.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2015 08:04:00 PM

By request, a few more employment graphs ...

Here are the previous posts on the employment report:

• February Employment Report: 295,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Report Comments and Graphs

Duration of Unemployment
This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

The general trend is down for all categories, and both the "less than 5 weeks" and 6 to 14 weeks" are close to normal levels. 

The long term unemployed is close to 1.7% of the labor force - the lowest since December 2008 - however the number (and percent) of long term unemployed remains a serious problem.

Unemployment by Education
This graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older).

Unfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and only includes one previous recession (the stock / tech bust in 2001). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate - and it appears all four groups are generally trending down.

Although education matters for the unemployment rate, it doesn't appear to matter as far as finding new employment.

Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed".

Construction Employment
This graph shows total construction employment as reported by the BLS (not just residential).

Since construction employment bottomed in January 2011, construction payrolls have increased by 921 thousand.

Diffusion Indexes
 The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 65.4 in February, up from 62.0 in January.

For manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 64.4, up from 61.3 in January.

Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS.  Above 60 is very good.  From the BLS:

Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.

Overall job growth was widespread in February - another good sign.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2015 10:00:00 AM

The key economic report this week is February retail sales on Thursday.

Also the Census Bureau will release the Q4 Quarterly Services Report on Wednesday, and the Fed will release the Q4 Flow of Funds report on Thursday.

----- Monday, March 9th -----
At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

----- Tuesday, March 10th -----
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in December to 5.028 million from 4.847 million in November.

The number of job openings (yellow) were up 28% year-over-year, and Quits were up 12% year-over-year.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for January. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in inventories.

----- Wednesday, March 11th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: The Q4 Quarterly Services Report from the Census Bureau.

4:30 PM: The Federal Reserve will release the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review Results (Stress Test)

----- Thursday, March 12th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 309 thousand from 320 thousand.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for February will be released.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992 through January 2015. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.3% from January 2014.

The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in February, and to increase 0.5% ex-autos.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for January.  The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in inventories.

12:00 PM: Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

2:00 PM ET: The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for February.

----- Friday, March 13th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for March). The consensus is for a reading of 95.5, up from 95.4 in February.