Thursday, June 26, 2014

Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group

by Bill McBride on 6/26/2014 03:46:00 PM

As follow-up to my previous post, earlier today the Census Bureau released the population estimates by age for 2013: As the Nation Ages, Seven States Become Younger, Census Bureau Reports

The median age declined in seven states between 2012 and 2013, including five in the Great Plains, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today. In contrast, the median age for the U.S. as a whole ticked up from 37.5 years to 37.6 years.
I think the headline should have been something like: Baby Boomers lose Title as Largest 5-Year Cohort!

Note: This is a positive for apartments, see: The Favorable Demographics for Apartments and Apartments: Supply and Demand

The table below shows the top 11 cohorts by size for 2010, 2013 (released today), and Census Bureau projections for 2020 and 2030.

As I noted earlier, by 202 8 of the top 10 cohorts will be  under 40 (the Boomers will be fading away), and by 2030 the top 11 cohorts will be the youngest 11 cohorts (the reason I included 11 cohorts).

As the graph in the previous post indicated, even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics).  The good news is that will change soon.

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2020 and 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age will be increasing again soon.

Population: Largest 5-Year Cohorts by Year
Largest
Cohorts
2010201320202030
145 to 49 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years35 to 39 years
250 to 54 years50 to 54 years30 to 34 years40 to 44 years
315 to 19 years25 to 29 years35 to 39 years30 to 34 years
420 to 24 years30 to 34 yearsUnder 5 years25 to 29 years
525 to 29 years45 to 49 years55 to 59 years5 to 9 years
640 to 44 years55 to 59 years20 to 24 years10 to 14 years
710 to 14 years15 to 19 years5 to 9 yearsUnder 5 years
85 to 9 years40 to 44 years60 to 64 years15 to 19 years
9Under 5 years10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years
1035 to 39 years5 to 9 years10 to 14 years45 to 49 years
1130 to 34 yearsUnder 5 years50 to 54 years50 to 54 years