by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2015 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 5.0 million job openings on the last business day of December, little changed from 4.8 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...
...
Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. ... There were 2.7 million quits in December, little changed from November.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for December, the most recent employment report was for January.

Click on graph for larger image.


Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings increased in December to 5.028 million from 4.847 million in November.

The number of job openings (yellow) are up 28% year-over-year compared to December 2013.

Quits are up 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

This is another very positive report.  It is a good sign that job openings are over 5 million, and that quits are increasing year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2015 09:01:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM FALLS, BUT STILL IN NORMAL ZONE

The Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.5 points to 97.9, giving back the December gain that took the Index over 100. Still, the Index indicates that the small business sector is operating in a somewhat “normal” zone.

The percent of owners reporting job creation fell 4 percentage points to a net 5 percent of owners, still a solid number. ... Twenty-six percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 1 point and a very solid reading. ...
...
Labor costs continue to put pressure on the bottom line but energy prices are down a lot. Two percent reported reduced worker compensation and 25 percent reported raising compensation, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 25 percent reporting higher compensation, unchanged from December.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.

The index decreased to 97.9 in January from 100.4 in December.

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2015 07:21:00 PM

From the NY Times: Greece to Propose a Debt Compromise Plan to Creditors

Hoping to defuse a standoff that has set Europe and financial markets on edge, Greek officials intend to propose a detailed compromise plan at an emergency meeting with creditors on Wednesday in Brussels, a finance ministry official here said on Monday.
...
Greece still plans to reject some of the harshest austerity conditions attached to Greece’s bailout loans, but will propose retaining about 70 percent of the terms, according to the official.

Athens will propose replacing the remaining 30 percent of the austerity conditions with new reforms that the Greek government will devise together with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Tuesday:
• At 7:30 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

• Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for January. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS. Jobs openings increased in November to 4.972 million from 4.830 million in October. The number of job openings were up 21% year-over-year compared to November 2013, and Quits were up 7% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2015 03:20:00 PM

At least this is getting more media attention ...

From the LA Times: Ship unloading resumes at West Coast ports as labor talks continue

Employers and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union have been locked in bitter talks for a new West Coast dockworkers contract for nearly nine months -- a period that has seen debilitating congestion up and down the West Coast.
...
The line of ships anchored off the Long Beach and Los Angeles coast waiting for berths grew over the weekend, from 28 Friday afternoon to 31 Sunday morning, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California.
...
The two sides are expected to meet again this afternoon.

From CNBC: West Coast ports: Retail's $7 billion problem

Retailers' anxiety levels are rising as gridlock grinds on with contract negotiations between West Coast dockworkers and port terminal operators.

It has been a long nine months for those dealing directly, or indirectly, with the lack of a West Coast port contract, and after a temporary shutdown over the weekend, retail lobby groups and consultants are assigning potential costs to the issue.

According to a Kurt Salmon analysis, congestion at West Coast ports could cost retailers as much as $7 billion this year. That congestion cost comes from a combination of the higher price of carrying goods and missed sales due to below optimal inventory levels.

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2015 11:59:00 AM

Last year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group, Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate: Mostly Demographics and Long Term Trends, and The Future is still Bright!

I pointed out that "even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics). The good news is that will change soon."

Changes in demographics are an important determinant of economic growth, and although most people focus on the aging of the "baby boomer" generation, the movement of younger cohorts into the prime working age is another key story in coming years. Here is a graph of the prime working age population (this is population, not the labor force) from 1948 through January 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

There was a huge surge in the prime working age population in the '70s, '80s and '90s - and the prime age population has been mostly flat recently (even declined a little).

The prime working age labor force grew even quicker than the population in the '70s and '80s due to the increase in participation of women. In fact, the prime working age labor force was increasing 3%+ per year in the '80s!

So when we compare economic growth to the '70s, '80, or 90's we have to remember this difference in demographics (the '60s saw solid economic growth as near-prime age groups increased sharply).

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and appears to have bottomed at the end of 2012.  The good news is the prime working age group has started to grow again, and should be growing solidly by 2020 - and this should boost economic activity in the years ahead.