by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2015 08:48:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, financial activities, and manufacturing.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +353,000 to +423,000, and the change for December was revised from +252,000 to +329,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December were 147,000 higher than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions.
...
[Benchmark revision] The total nonfarm employment level for March 2014 was revised upward by 91,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 257 thousand in January (private payrolls increased 267 thousand).

Payrolls for November and December were revised up by a combined 147 thousand, putting November over 400 thousand!

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In January, the year-over-year change was 3.21 million jobs.

This was the highest year-over-year gain since the '90s.

And improved earnings: "In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 12 cents to $24.75, following a decrease of 5 cents in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent."

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in January to 62.9%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio was increased to 59.3% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased in January to 5.7%.

This was above expectations of 230,000, and with the upward revisions to prior months, this was another strong report.

I'll have much more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2015 08:39:00 PM

Here was an employment preview I posted earlier: Preview for January Employment Report: Taking the Under

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January, down from the 252,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.6% in January from 5.6% the previous month.

Notes: The annual benchmark revision will be released with the January report. The preliminary estimate was an additional 7,000 jobs as of March 2014.

Also, the new population controls will be used in the Current Population Survey (CPS) estimation process. It is important to note that "household survey data for January 2015 will not be directly comparable with data for December 2014 or earlier periods".

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for December from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $15.0 billion.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2015 05:17:00 PM

Tim Duy provides a number of thoughts, and I'd like to highlight one: Fed Updates

3.) Fed ready to lower NAIRU?  I have argued in the past that if the Fed is faced with ongoing slow wage growth, they would need to reassess their estimates of NAIRU.  Cardiff Garcia reminded me:

@TheStalwart @TimDuy Whether/extent to which Fed reverts nat-rate estimates to pre-2010 range is one of 2015's big Qs pic.twitter.com/CKieHx2zRC
— Cardiff Garcia (@CardiffGarcia) February 4, 2015

While David Wessel adds today:

JPMorgan run the Fed's statistical model of the economy and says the NAIRU (which was 5.6%+ through 2013 data) is now down to 5%.
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 5, 2015

Jim O'Sullivan from High Frequency Economics says not yet:

"Hard-to-fill" @NFIB jobs series up to 26 in Jan (+1). Corroborates unempl decline, with no sign of lower #NAIRU pic.twitter.com/DVYGyGV4e6
— Jim O'Sullivan (@osullivanEcon) February 5, 2015

A reduction in the Fed's estimate of the natural rate of unemployment would likely mean a delayed and more gradual path of policy tightening, should of course the Fed ever get the chance to pull off the zero bound.  Keep an eye on this issue!

There is much more in Duy's post.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2015 02:20:00 PM

This is a quarterly index from the the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and is similar to the overall housing market index (HMI). The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing bust), so the readings were initially very low.  Note that this index is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) and usually dips in Q4 compared to Q3 (just seasonal).

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Ends Fourth Quarter on a Record High

The fourth quarter results of the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today show that builders are feeling quite positive about the market. All segments of the market—single-family homes, condominiums and multifamily rental—registered increases compared to the same quarter a year ago. The single-family index increased six points to a level of 54, which is the highest fourth-quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008 and the 13th consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.
...
All components of the 55+ single-family HMI posted increases from a year ago: present sales increased five points to 58, expected sales for the next six months rose two points to 64 and traffic of prospective buyers increased six points to 39.

“The strength of the 55+ segment of the housing industry has been fueled in part by rising home values,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Older home owners are finding it easier to sell their existing homes at a favorable price, allowing them to rent or buy a new home in a 55+ community.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB 55+ HMI through Q4 2014.  The index increased in Q4 to 54 from 48 in Q4 2013.  This indicates that more builders view conditions as good than as  poor.

There are two key drivers in addition to the improved economy: 1) there is a large cohort moving into the 55+ group, and 2) the homeownership rate typically increases for people in the 55 to 70 year old age group. So demographics should be favorable for the 55+ market.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2015 12:40:00 PM

Note: Yesterday I wrote: Preview for January Employment Report: Taking the Under

From Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: January Payrolls Preview

We forecast nonfarm payroll job growth of 210k in January, below the consensus forecast of 230k. Payroll employment growth exceeded 250k in each of the last four months and averaged 246k over the 12 months of 2014, a substantial pick-up from the 194k average gain in 2013. On balance, labor market indicators were softer in January, with the decline in the ISM non-manufacturing employment index the most notable sign of slower hiring. We also expect a moderately positive two-month back-revision. The January report will also include annual benchmark revisions to payroll employment, but the preliminary revisions released in September indicated very little change.
...
We expect employment gains to push the unemployment rate down to 5.5% in January from an unrounded 5.565% in December, though new population controls that will be included with the January report create some uncertainty.
...
The two-tenths decline in average hourly earnings was the major surprise of the December payrolls report. But as we argued last month, calendar distortions and an unusual pattern of holiday retail hiring likely accounted for most of the downside surprise. We therefore expect average hourly earnings to rebound this month, growing an above-trend +0.4% in January, although we see some risk of a softer January gain coupled with an upward revision to December. Average hourly earnings rose just 1.7% over the year ending in December, contributing to the soft 2.1% year-on-year increase in our wage tracker. We expect an acceleration to around 2.75% by year-end, still well below the 3-4% rate of wage growth that Fed Chair Janet Yellen has identified as normal.
emphasis added