by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2015 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 5.0 million job openings on the last business day of November, little changed from 4.8 million in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...
...
Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. ... There were 2.6 million quits in November, little changed from October.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November, the most recent employment report was for December.

Click on graph for larger image.


Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings increased in November to 4.972 million from 4.830 million in October.

The number of job openings (yellow) are up 21% year-over-year compared to November 2013.

Quits are up 7% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

This is another very positive report.  It is a good sign that job openings are almost to 5 million, and that quits are increasing year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2015 09:00:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Perks Up in December

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey rose 2.3 points to 100.4 in December, its highest level since October of 2006, with positive gains in eight of 10 indices, a strong signal that American small businesses could be finally shaking off the effects of the Great Recession.

“The Index showed strength in November but most of the gains were confined to just two categories. The December Index shows much broader strength led by a significant increase in the number of owners who expect higher sales. This could be a breakout for small business. There’s no question that small business owners are feeling better about the economy. If they continue to feel that way 2015 could be a very good year.” – Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.

The index increased to 100.4 in December from 98.1 in November.

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 08:01:00 PM

A decline in oil prices of 5% per day seems routine now.

From the WSJ: Oil Prices Fall to Fresh Lows

After dropping in half in 2014, Brent oil prices are already down 17% for the year, as robust global supply growth continues to outpace demand. ... Brent dropped $2.68, or 5.3%, to $47.43 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the lowest settlement since March 2009.

U.S. oil for February delivery settled down $2.29, or 4.7%, at $46.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since April 2009.

For fun ... the financial crisis low for Brent was $33.73 per barrel in 2008.  I doubt prices will fall that far - but at 5% per day, who knows?

Tuesday:
• At 7:30 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS. Jobs openings increased in October to 4.834 million from 4.685 million in September. The number of job openings were up 21% year-over-year compared to October 2013, and Quits were up 12% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 04:26:00 PM

A couple of major changes: Sales were up year-over-year and inventory down slightly year-over-year in Phoenix!

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in December were up 9.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down about 8% to 29.2% of total sales. Non-cash sales were up 18.2% year-over-year.

3) Active inventory is now down 1.8% year-over-year - and at about the same level as in December 2011 (in 2011 house prices bottomed in Phoenix).

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow.

According to Case-Shiller, Phoenix house prices bottomed in August 2011 (mostly flat for all of 2011), and then increased 23% in 2012, and another 15% in 2013.  Those large increases were probably due to investor buying, low inventory and some bounce back from the steep price declines in 2007 through 2010.  Now, with more inventory, price increases have flattened out in 2014.

As an example, the Phoenix Case-Shiller index through October shows prices up about 1% in 2014, and the Zillow index shows Phoenix prices up 2.5% over the last year.

December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Dec-08	5,524	---	1,665	30.1%	53,7921	---
Dec-09	7,661	38.7%	3,008	39.3%	39,709	-26.2%1
Dec-10	8,401	9.7%	3,939	46.9%	42,463	6.9%
Dec-11	7,843	-6.6%	3,635	46.3%	24,712	-41.8%
Dec-12	7,071	-9.8%	3,211	45.4%	21,095	-14.6%
Dec-13	5,930	-16.1%	2,053	34.6%	25,511	20.9%
Dec-14	6,475	9.2%	1,893	29.2%	25,052	-1.8%
1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 01:52:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April 2009 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Since then sales have more than doubled and hit 446 thousand SAAR in August 2014.   Sales have declined a little since August, and were at 411 thousand SAAR in December.

The level in August was the highest level since February 2007 (over 7 years ago).  Sales are now above the average (and median) of the last 20 years.