by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2015 11:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is December retail sales on Wednesday.

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the January NY Fed (Empire State),  and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week. 

For prices, PPI will be released on Thursday, and CPI will be released on Friday.

----- Monday, January 12th -----
At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

----- Tuesday, January 13th -----
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 4.834 million from 4.685 million in September.

he number of job openings (yellow) were up 21% year-over-year compared to October 2013, and Quits were up 12% year-over-year.

----- Wednesday, January 14th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for December will be released.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992 through November 2014. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.1% from November 2013.

The consensus is for retail sales to decrease 0.1% in December, and to decrease 0.1% ex-autos.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for November.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, January 15th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 295 thousand from 294 thousand.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0, up from -3.6 last month (above zero is expansion).

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 18.8, down from 24.3 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

----- Friday, January 16th -----
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in CPI, and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 80.0%.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for January). The consensus is for a reading of 94.1, up from 93.6 in December.

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2015 08:36:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Jan 2, 2015 (to be updated next week).

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Slow week as expected for changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. There was only removal that lowered the list count to 399 institutions with assets of $124.6 billion. A year ago, the list held 618 institutions with assets of $205.6 billion.

The FDIC terminated the action against Business Bank, Burlington, WA ($133 million), which then changed its name to SaviBank after being released from the enforcement action. Next week, we anticipate the OCC will provide an update on its latest enforcement action activity.

CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The list peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011, and is now back down to 399.

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2015 04:25:00 PM

A number of people are wondering when inflation (and wage growth) will start to increase.   One key: First come the jobs, and then come real wages.  No one knows how much employment needs to increase before real wages start to increase, but at least we are making progress.

On inflation, I've been looking at this from a demographics perspective.  If we look at the annual change in the prime working age population, there is one other period similar to the current situation - the early-to-mid 60s.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in the prime working age population (25 to 54 years old).

Note: Ignore the steps up and down - the data was affected by changes in population controls.

Click on graph for larger image.

The key is the prime working age population was declining in the early part of this decade and has only started increasing again recently.

This is very similar to what happened in the 60s.

 In the early 60s, there was a slow increase in the prime working age population until the baby boomers started pouring into the labor force.

The second graph shows the unemployment rate and year-over-year change in inflation in the 1960s.

In the 1960s, inflation didn't pickup until the unemployment rate had fallen close to 4%.  There could be several demographics reasons for the low inflation (in addition to policy reasons).  As an example, maybe older workers were being replaced by younger workers who made less (just like today), and maybe the slow increase in the prime working age population put less pressure on resources.

Ignoring for the moment monetary and fiscal policy differences between the periods (LBJ's guns and butter and some austerity recently), maybe the unemployment rate will have to fall below 5% before inflation picks up.

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2015 01:32:00 PM

Jann Swanson at Mortgage News Daily Update on Mortgage Insurance Cut: FHA to Allow Case Number Cancellation

According to the executive order announced yesterday FHA will almost immediately cut .5 percent from the annual premium for the FHA backed loans with terms greater than 15yrs. For most FHA loans this will reduce the annual premium from 1.35 percent of the loan balance to .85 percent. Loans with balances above the loan limits in effect in most areas and with current MIP of 1.50 to 1.55 percent will see new premiums of 1.00 or 1.05 percent respectively. The upfront premium for all loans will remain unchanged at 1.75 percent.

Borrowers with FHA Case Numbers issued on or after January 26 will be eligible for the new premium rates. However, today's letter has good news for borrowers already in process of getting their FHA loan. Lenders will temporarily be allowed to cancel Case Numbers issued before that date.

Key points:
1) Cut applies to loan greater than 15 years (15 year loan are already at lower levels).

2) Borrowers with FHA-insured loans can refinance and obtain the lower annual MIP, as long as the original endorsement was after May 31, 2009 (Older loans have a lower annual MIP. The annual MIP was increased from 0.55% to 0.90% in October 2010, to 1.15% in April 2011, to 1.25% in April 2012, and to 1.35% in April 2013 for borrowers with less than 5% down.)  Note: HUD told me yesterday that they expect 100,000 to 200,000 FHA-insured borrowers to refinance in the next year.

3) Lenders can cancel loans in process so borrowers can obtain lower annual MIP. As Swanson notes, there will probably be a surge in loans starting January 26th (all the canceled loans, and an increase in refinance activity).

Note: Borrowers with FHA-insured loans that are thinking of refinancing should check other alternatives (if the value of the home has increased - or other changes - maybe the borrower can get a lower rate with a different program).

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2015 10:02:00 AM

Earlier: December Employment Report: 252,000 Jobs, 5.6% Unemployment Rate

In November, I posted a possible list of economic words for the year since I started this blog. This included "bubble", "subprime", "bailout" and more. For 2014 I suggested "employment", and 2014 was definitely about jobs!  That is something to celebrate.

2014 was the best year for total employment since 1999, and the best year for private employment since 1997.  Awesome news.

Looking forward, hopefully 2015 will be about "wages".   My thinking is first come the jobs, then comes the real wage growth.

Overall this was a strong employment report with 252,000 jobs added, and job gains for October and November were revised up.  A few other positives: U-6 declined to 11.2% (an alternative measure for labor underutilization) and was at the lowest level since 2008, the number of part time workers for economic reasons declined  (lowest since October 2008), and the number of long term unemployed declined to the lowest level since January 2009.

Unfortunately there was disappointing news on wage growth, from the BLS: "In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 5 cents to $24.57, following an increase of 6 cents in November. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.7 percent."  But wages will hopefully be a 2015 story.

With the unemployment rate at 5.6%, there is still little upward pressure on wages. Hopefully wage growth will pick up as the unemployment rate falls over the next couple of years.

A few more numbers:

Total employment increased 252,000 from November to December and is now 2.0 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 10.7 million from the employment recession low.

Private payroll employment increased 314,000 from October to November, and private employment is now 2.4 million above the previous peak. Private employment is up 11.2 million from the recession low.

Year-over-year Change in Employment

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In December, the year-over-year change was 2.95 million jobs, and it appears the pace of hiring is increasing.

This was the highest year-over-year gain since the '90s.

Seasonal Retail Hiring

According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers at a solid pace in 2014.

Click on graph for larger image.

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring has increased back close to more normal levels (highest since the '90s). Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

This suggests retailers were optimistic about the holiday season, and my guess is holiday retail sales were solid.

Employment-Population Ratio, 25 to 54 years old

Since the overall participation rate declined recently due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, an important graph is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

In the earlier period the participation rate for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. Since the early '90s, the participation rate moved more sideways, with a downward drift starting around '00 - and with ups and downs related to the business cycle.

The 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in December at 80.8%, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 77.0%.  As the recovery continues, I expect the participation rate for this group to increase a little (or at least stabilize for a couple of years) - although the participation rate has been trending down for this group since the late '90s.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in December at 6.8 million.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 6.790 million from 6,850 million in November.  This suggests slack still in the labor market.  These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 11.2% in December from 11.4% in November.

This is the lowest level for U-6 since September 2008.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 2.785 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 2.815 in November. This is trending down, but is still very high.

This is the lowest level for long term unemployed since January 2009.

State and Local Government

This graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost jobs for four straight years. (Note: Scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.)

In December 2014, state and local governments added 11,500 jobs.  State and local government employment is now up 169,500 from the bottom, but still 574,500 below the peak.

State and local employment is now increasing.  And Federal government layoffs have slowed (payroll increased by 1 thousand in December), but Federal employment was still down 17,000 for the year.