by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2015 10:02:00 AM

Earlier: December Employment Report: 252,000 Jobs, 5.6% Unemployment Rate

In November, I posted a possible list of economic words for the year since I started this blog. This included "bubble", "subprime", "bailout" and more. For 2014 I suggested "employment", and 2014 was definitely about jobs!  That is something to celebrate.

2014 was the best year for total employment since 1999, and the best year for private employment since 1997.  Awesome news.

Looking forward, hopefully 2015 will be about "wages".   My thinking is first come the jobs, then comes the real wage growth.

Overall this was a strong employment report with 252,000 jobs added, and job gains for October and November were revised up.  A few other positives: U-6 declined to 11.2% (an alternative measure for labor underutilization) and was at the lowest level since 2008, the number of part time workers for economic reasons declined  (lowest since October 2008), and the number of long term unemployed declined to the lowest level since January 2009.

Unfortunately there was disappointing news on wage growth, from the BLS: "In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 5 cents to $24.57, following an increase of 6 cents in November. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.7 percent."  But wages will hopefully be a 2015 story.

With the unemployment rate at 5.6%, there is still little upward pressure on wages. Hopefully wage growth will pick up as the unemployment rate falls over the next couple of years.

A few more numbers:

Total employment increased 252,000 from November to December and is now 2.0 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 10.7 million from the employment recession low.

Private payroll employment increased 314,000 from October to November, and private employment is now 2.4 million above the previous peak. Private employment is up 11.2 million from the recession low.

Year-over-year Change in Employment

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In December, the year-over-year change was 2.95 million jobs, and it appears the pace of hiring is increasing.

This was the highest year-over-year gain since the '90s.

Seasonal Retail Hiring

According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers at a solid pace in 2014.

Click on graph for larger image.

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring has increased back close to more normal levels (highest since the '90s). Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

This suggests retailers were optimistic about the holiday season, and my guess is holiday retail sales were solid.

Employment-Population Ratio, 25 to 54 years old

Since the overall participation rate declined recently due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, an important graph is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

In the earlier period the participation rate for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. Since the early '90s, the participation rate moved more sideways, with a downward drift starting around '00 - and with ups and downs related to the business cycle.

The 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in December at 80.8%, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 77.0%.  As the recovery continues, I expect the participation rate for this group to increase a little (or at least stabilize for a couple of years) - although the participation rate has been trending down for this group since the late '90s.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in December at 6.8 million.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 6.790 million from 6,850 million in November.  This suggests slack still in the labor market.  These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 11.2% in December from 11.4% in November.

This is the lowest level for U-6 since September 2008.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 2.785 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 2.815 in November. This is trending down, but is still very high.

This is the lowest level for long term unemployed since January 2009.

State and Local Government

This graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost jobs for four straight years. (Note: Scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.)

In December 2014, state and local governments added 11,500 jobs.  State and local government employment is now up 169,500 from the bottom, but still 574,500 below the peak.

State and local employment is now increasing.  And Federal government layoffs have slowed (payroll increased by 1 thousand in December), but Federal employment was still down 17,000 for the year.

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2015 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from +243,000 to +261,000, and the change for November was revised from +321,000 to +353,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November were 50,000 higher than previously reported.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Eleven consecutive months over 200 thousand.

Employment is now up 2.952 million year-over-year.

Here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm, private and public sector payrolls jobs since 1997. For total employment, 2014 was the best year since 1999.

For private employment, 2014 was the best year since 1997.

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s)
	Total, Nonfarm	Private	Public
1997	3,408	3,213	195
1998	3,003	2,734	313
1999	3,177	2,716	461
2000	1,946	1,682	264
2001	-1,735	-2,286	551
2002	-508	-741	233
2003	105	147	-42
2004	2,033	1,886	147
2005	2,506	2,320	186
2006	2,085	1,876	209
2007	1,140	852	288
2008	-3,576	-3,756	180
2009	-5,087	-5,013	-74
2010	1,058	1,277	-219
2011	2,083	2,400	-317
2012	2,236	2,294	-58
2013	2,331	2,365	-34
2014	2,952	2,861	91

The second graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate declined in December to 62.7%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 59.2% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The third graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate declined in December to 5,6%.

This was above expectations of 245,000, and with the upward revisions to prior months, this was another strong report.

I'll have much more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2015 07:49:00 PM

First an important point from Tim Duy: Volatile Week Ahead of Employment Report

I tend agree that the net impact [from the decline in oil prices] will be positive, but note that the negative impacts will be fairly concentrated and easy for the media to sensationalize, while the positive impacts will be fairly dispersed. We all know what is going to happen to rig counts, high-yield energy debt, and the economies of North Dakota and at least parts of Texas. "Kablooey," I think, is the technical term. Easy media fodder. Much more difficult to see the positive impact spread across the real incomes of millions of households, with particularly solid gains at the lower ends of the income distribution. This will be most likely revealed in the aggregate data and be much less newsworthy.
emphasis added

We are already seeing stories about layoffs in oil related industries (and suppliers). However, since the US is a large net importer of oil, the overall impact of lower oil prices should be positive for the US economy. The negative stories are newsworthy, but it is worth remembering - as Tim Duy notes - that the positive stories will be hidden in the aggregate data.

Here was an employment preview I posted earlier: Preview: Employment Report for December

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 240,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December, down from the 321,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.7% in December from 5.8% the previous month.

• At 10:00 AM, Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2015 04:33:00 PM

Just to be clear, current FHA-insured borrowers will need to refinance to obtain the 0.85% annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP).

New borrowers will obtain the lower MIP automatically.

HUD will send out a letter very soon clarifying what this means for borrowers currently in the process of obtaining an FHA-insured loan.

HUD estimates that approximately 100,000 to 200,000 FHA-insured borrowers will refinance in the next year.

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2015 03:04:00 PM

Update2: Clarification: Current FHA-insured borrowers WILL need to Refinance to obtain lower MIP

I was thinking there would be a refinance boom for FHA loans. The HUD press release read:

"FHA’s new annual premium prices will take effect for all new FHA-insured mortgages endorsed toward the end of January 2015. FHA will publish a mortgagee letter detailing its new pricing structure shortly."
emphasis added

That sounded like people would need to refinance to obtain the lower MIP.

This would be a significant number of borrowers because the annual MIP was increased to 1.15% in April 2011, to 1.25% in April 2012, and to 1.35% in April 2013 (for borrowers with less than 5% down). Looking at the mortgage rates available at those times, it appeared a large number of FHA insured borrowers would consider refinancing now.

However HUD just corrected their press release to read:

"FHA’s new annual premium prices are expected to take effect towards the end of the month. FHA will publish a mortgagee letter detailing its new pricing structure shortly."

The "new FHA-insured" was removed. Update: Or this change could mean that loans currently in the process will receive the old MIP, and loans originated after January will receive the new MIP.  It is difficult to lower the MIP for current borrowers ...

So I'm expecting an FHA refi boom.