by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2014 04:14:00 PM

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. 

From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Price Surge Continues In Third Quarter

NATIONAL COMPOSITE INDICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB. Both the value-weighted and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Indices of the CCRSI made strong gains in September 2014 to close the quarter. The value-weighted index, which is heavily influenced by core transactions, advanced by 1.9% in the month of September and 3.3% in the third quarter of 2014. The value-weighted index is now 2.8% above its prerecession high and continues to make solid gains. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which is heavily influenced by smaller non-core deals, increased by 1.3% in September and 4.2% in the third quarter of 2014.
...
ANNUAL PRICE GAINS REALIZED ACROSS ALL MAJOR PROPERTY SECTORS. The retail, industrial, and office segments all moved up toward 2007 pricing levels in September 2014 and are now within 11.4%, 14.4%, and 21.2% of their previous peaks, respectively. The multifamily sector, which recovered earlier than the other property types, is now 1% above its previous peak.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoStar shows the the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index indexes.

 The value weighted index is above the pre-recession peak, but the equal weighted is still well below the pre-recession peak.

There are indexes by sector and region too.

The second graph shows indexes by sector.

The multifamily sector is now above the previous peak.  The office sector is lagging.

Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2014 12:59:00 PM

Update: Here is the summary Summary of FY2014 FHA Annual Report to Congress on the Financial Health of the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund

Joe Light at the WSJ writes: Federal Housing Authority in the Black for First Time Since 2011

The audit found that the FHA’s insurance fund had an economic value of $4.8 billion at the end of September, up from negative $1.1 billion last fiscal year. Its capital-reserve ratio, which the FHA is supposed to keep above 2%, grew to 0.41%. While an improvement, it was still short of last year’s projection.
...
More important, the report estimated that the FHA won’t return to the congressionally mandated 2% threshold until 2016, a year later than formerly estimated.

Recent FHA loans have performed very well, and the better performance combined with higher fees has led to the improvement.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2014 09:23:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after having advanced 0.8 percent in September. In October, manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. The index for mining declined 0.9 percent and the output of utilities moved down 0.7 percent. At 104.9 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in October was 4.0 percent above its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.3 percentage point in October to 78.9 percent, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2013) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.9 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 78.9% is 1.2 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2012 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased 0.1% in October to 105.1. This is 25.3% above the recession low, and 4.1% above the pre-recession peak.

The monthly change for Industrial Production was below expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2014 08:34:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The November 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to expand for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index climbed four points to 10.2, indicating a pace of growth somewhat faster than last month’s. The new orders index rose eleven points to 9.1, and the shipments index advanced eleven points to 11.8. The index for number of employees edged down to 8.5 but remained positive, indicating that employment levels grew; the average workweek index, by contrast, was negative, pointing to a decline in hours worked. ...
emphasis added

This is the first of the regional surveys for November.  The general business conditions index was at the consensus forecast of a reading of 10.5, and indicates slightly faster expansion in November than in October (above zero suggests expansion).

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2014 07:23:00 PM

Saturday, November 15th, was Doris "Tanta" Dungey's birthday. Happy Birthday T!

For new readers, Tanta was my co-blogger back in 2007 and 2008. She was a brilliant, writer - very funny - and a mortgage expert. Sadly, she passed away in 2008, and I like to celebrate her life on her birthday.

I strongly recommend Tanta's "The Compleat UberNerd" posts for an understanding of the mortgage industry. And here are many of her other posts.

On her passing, from the NY Times: Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47, from the WaPo: Doris J. Dungey; Blogger Chronicled Mortgage Crisis, from me: Sad News: Tanta Passes Away

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 10.5, up from 6.2 in October (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.3%.

• Note: New York Fed to Publish Blog Series on Long-term Unemployment and Labor Market Slack

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 16th

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently the S&P futures are down 4 and DOW futures are down 31 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $75.84 per barrel and Brent at $79.51 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $94, and Brent was at $107 - so prices are down more than 20%  year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $2.89 per gallon (down about 30 cents from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com