by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2014 04:30:00 PM

Repeat: Here are graphs of the U.S population by age and distribution, from 1900 through 2060. The population data and estimates are from the Census Bureau (actual through 2010 and projections through 2060).

There are many interesting points - the Depression baby bust (that started before the Depression), the baby boom, the 2nd smaller baby bust following the baby boom, the "echo" boom" and more.

What jumps out at me are the improvements in health care ... and also that the largest cohorts will all soon be under 40.

Notes: For animation, population is in thousands (not labeled)! Prior to 1940, the oldest group in the Census data was "75+".  From 1940 through 1985, the oldest group was "85+".  Starting in 1990, the oldest group is 100+.

Reader Druce put together the graphic below of the U.S population distribution, by age, from 1900 through 2060 using a slider. In 1900, the graph was fairly steep, but with improving health care, the graph has flattened out over the last 100 years.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2014 01:34:00 PM

From DataQuick: Sluggish Bay Area Home Sales in July; Prices Up – at a Slower Pace

A total of 8,474 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 7.1 percent from 7,915 in June and down 9.3 percent from 9,339 in July last year, according to Irvine-based CoreLogic DataQuick, a real estate information service.

Bay Area sales usually decline around 5 percent from June to July. Sales for the month of July have varied from 6,666 in 1995 to 14,258 in 2004. The average since 1988, when CoreLogic DataQuick statistics begin, is 9,333. ...
...
Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 2.7 percent of resales, down from a revised 2.9 percent from the month before, and down from 4.6 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009, while the monthly average over the past 17 years is 9.8 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 4.2 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 4.4 percent in June and down from 8.5 percent a year earlier.

Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – accounted for 18.8 percent of all Bay Area home sales, which was the lowest absentee share of purchases since that figure was 18.5 percent in September 2010.
emphasis added

A few key year-over-year trends: 1) declining distressed sales, 2) generally declining investor buying, 3) flat or declining total sales, but 4) flat or some increase in non-distressed sales.

Though total sales were down 9.3% year-over-year, the percent of non-distressed sales was down about 2%.  

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2014 11:00:00 AM

Here is the Q2 report: Household Debt and Credit Report. From the NY Fed:

Aggregate consumer debt was roughly flat in the 2nd quarter of 2014, showing a minor decrease of $18 billion. As of June 30, 2014, total consumer indebtedness was $11.63 trillion, down by 0.2% from its level in the first quarter of 2014. Overall consumer debt still remains 8.2% below its 2008Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion.

Mortgages, the largest component of household debt, decreased by 0.8%. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports stand at $8.10 trillion, down by $69 billion from their level in the first quarter. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) also dropped by $5 billion (1.0%) in the second quarter and now stand at $521 billion. Non-housing debt balances increased by 1.9 %, boosted by gains in all categories. Auto loan balances increased by $30 billion; student loan balances increased by $7 billion; credit card balances increased by $10 billion; and other non-housing balances increased by $9 billion.

Delinquency rates improved across the board in 2014Q2. As of June 30, 6.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared with 6.6% in 2014Q1. About $724 billion of debt is delinquent, with $521 billion seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt was flat in Q2.

Even though debt was down slightly in Q2, the recent increase in debt suggests households (in the aggregate) may be near the end of deleveraging.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The percent of delinquent debt is steadily declining, although there is still a large percent of debt 90+ days delinquent (Yellow, orange and red). 

The overall delinquency rate declined to 6.2% in Q2, from 6.6% in Q1. This is the lowest rate since Q3 2007.

The Severely Derogatory (red) rate has fallen to 2.28%, the lowest since Q1 2008.

The 120+ days late (orange) rate has declined to 1.90%, the lowest since Q3 2008.

Short term delinquencies are back to normal levels (lowest since series started in 2001).

Here is the press release from the NY Fed: New York Fed Report Shows Rises in Auto Loan Originations and Balances

There are a number of credit graphs at the NY Fed site.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2014 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending August 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 311,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 289,000 to 290,000. The 4-week moving average was 295,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 293,500 to 293,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was revised up to 290,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 295,750.

This was higher than the consensus forecast of 295,000. 

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2014 07:26:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 295 thousand from 289 thousand.

• At 11:00 AM, the Q2 2014 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit will be released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

On mortgage rates: I use the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) to track mortgage rates. The PMMS series started in 1971, so there is a fairly long historical series.

For daily rates, the Mortgage News Daily has a series that tracks the PMMS very well, and is usually updated daily around 3 PM ET. The MND data is based on actual lender rate sheets, and is mostly "the average no-point, no-origination rate for top-tier borrowers with flawless scenarios". (this tracks the Freddie Mac series).

MND reports that average 30 Year fixed mortgage rates decreased slightly today to 4.17% from 4.18% yesterday.

One year ago, rates were at 4.41% and rising.   So rates are down year-over-year, but up from late 2012 and early 2013. Daily rates peaked last year at 4.85% in early September.

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