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Thursday, August 14, 2014

NY Fed: Household Debt decreased Slightly in Q2 2014, Delinquency Rates Lowest Since Q3 2007

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2014 11:00:00 AM

Here is the Q2 report: Household Debt and Credit Report. From the NY Fed:

Aggregate consumer debt was roughly flat in the 2nd quarter of 2014, showing a minor decrease of $18 billion. As of June 30, 2014, total consumer indebtedness was $11.63 trillion, down by 0.2% from its level in the first quarter of 2014. Overall consumer debt still remains 8.2% below its 2008Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion.

Mortgages, the largest component of household debt, decreased by 0.8%. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports stand at $8.10 trillion, down by $69 billion from their level in the first quarter. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) also dropped by $5 billion (1.0%) in the second quarter and now stand at $521 billion. Non-housing debt balances increased by 1.9 %, boosted by gains in all categories. Auto loan balances increased by $30 billion; student loan balances increased by $7 billion; credit card balances increased by $10 billion; and other non-housing balances increased by $9 billion.

Delinquency rates improved across the board in 2014Q2. As of June 30, 6.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared with 6.6% in 2014Q1. About $724 billion of debt is delinquent, with $521 billion seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”).
emphasis added
Total Household Debt Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt was flat in Q2.

Even though debt was down slightly in Q2, the recent increase in debt suggests households (in the aggregate) may be near the end of deleveraging.

Delinquency Status The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The percent of delinquent debt is steadily declining, although there is still a large percent of debt 90+ days delinquent (Yellow, orange and red). 

The overall delinquency rate declined to 6.2% in Q2, from 6.6% in Q1. This is the lowest rate since Q3 2007.

The Severely Derogatory (red) rate has fallen to 2.28%, the lowest since Q1 2008.

The 120+ days late (orange) rate has declined to 1.90%, the lowest since Q3 2008.

Short term delinquencies are back to normal levels (lowest since series started in 2001).

Here is the press release from the NY Fed: New York Fed Report Shows Rises in Auto Loan Originations and Balances

There are a number of credit graphs at the NY Fed site.