by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2014 08:11:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 10, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

For the second time this year, there are no changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List to report. So the list remains unchanged at 465 institutions with assets of $147.6 billion. For comparison purposes, a year ago the list held 742 institutions with assets of $271.3 billion. Next week there will be some changes to report as the OCC should be issuing an update on its enforcement action activity on Friday.

CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The list peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011, and is now down to 465.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2014 08:42:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in June.

Comments from CR: Tom Lawler has been sending me this table every month for several years. I think it is very useful for looking at the trend for distressed sales and cash buyers in these areas. I sincerely appreciate Tom sharing this data with us.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets, mostly because of a sharp decline in short sales.

Short sales are down in all of these areas.

Foreclosures are down in most of these areas too, although foreclosures are up a little in Nevada and Mid-Atlantic.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	June-14	June-13	June-14	June-13	June-14	June-13	June-14	June-13
Las Vegas	10.8%	31.0%	10.1%	9.0%	20.9%	40.0%	34.7%	55.3%
Reno**	10.0%	24.0%	7.0%	6.0%	17.0%	30.0%
Phoenix	3.8%	12.7%	6.2%	8.7%	10.0%	21.5%	25.6%	37.5%
Sacramento	7.0%	19.7%	6.5%	7.3%	13.5%	27.0%	19.8%	29.9%
Mid-Atlantic	4.8%	7.6%	7.5%	6.3%	12.2%	13.9%	16.5%	15.9%
Hampton Roads					20.1%	22.8%
Northeast Florida					32.3%	37.3%
Toledo							28.4%	31.5%
Des Moines							14.9%	17.5%
Tucson							26.1%	28.1%
Omaha							16.3%	14.9%
Georgia***							24.6%	N/A
Houston			4.4%	8.4%
Memphis*			13.0%	18.9%
Birmingham AL			14.0%	19.4%
Springfield IL**			8.5%	11.8%
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2014 06:11:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on local realtor association/MLS reports released so far, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.96 million in June, up 1.4% from May’s pace, but down 3.9% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Based on a combination of realtor/MLS reports and reports from entities that track listings, I “gueestimate” that the NAR’s existing home inventory estimate for June will be 2.350 million, up about 3.1% from May and up 8.8% from last June. Finally, based on local realtor reports I predict that the NAR’s estimate for the median SF home sales price in June be up 3.9% from last June.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release June existing home sales on Tuesday, July 22nd. 

On inventory,  if Lawler is correct, this would put inventory in June at about the same level as in June 2012 (two years ago) when prices started increasing faster.  Now this should mean slower price increases.  Note: the NAR reported inventory at 2.280 million in May, up 6.0% from May 2013. 

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2014 02:55:00 PM

One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there is always a question on what income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people). 

And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller and CoreLogic - we have indexes, not actually prices.

But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measure of income.

For this graph I decided to look at house prices and the National Average Wage Index from Social Security.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the ratio of house price indexes divided by the National Average Wage Index (the Wage index is first divided by 1000).

This uses the annual average CoreLogic index since 1976, and also the National Case-Shiller index since 1987.

As of 2013, house prices were just above the historical ratio.  Prices have increased further in 2014, but it appears house prices relative to incomes is still below the 1989 peak.

Going forward, I think it would be a positive if wages outpaced, or at least kept pace with house prices increases for a few years.

Notes: The national wage index for 2013 is estimated using the same increase as in 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2014 12:11:00 PM

Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs. Then prices declined over 25% from the highs by mid-year 2013.

The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand (more housing starts) and supply constraints (framing lumber suppliers were working to bring more capacity online).

Prices didn't increase as much early in 2014 (more supply, smaller "surge" in demand), however prices haven't fallen as sharply either.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through last week (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.

Right now Random Lengths prices are up about 15% from a year ago, and CME futures are up about 11% year-over-year.