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Friday, July 11, 2014

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2014 06:11:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on local realtor association/MLS reports released so far, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.96 million in June, up 1.4% from May’s pace, but down 3.9% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Based on a combination of realtor/MLS reports and reports from entities that track listings, I “gueestimate” that the NAR’s existing home inventory estimate for June will be 2.350 million, up about 3.1% from May and up 8.8% from last June. Finally, based on local realtor reports I predict that the NAR’s estimate for the median SF home sales price in June be up 3.9% from last June.
CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release June existing home sales on Tuesday, July 22nd. 

On inventory,  if Lawler is correct, this would put inventory in June at about the same level as in June 2012 (two years ago) when prices started increasing faster.  Now this should mean slower price increases.  Note: the NAR reported inventory at 2.280 million in May, up 6.0% from May 2013.