by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2014 03:30:00 PM

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory ...

There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then usually peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for April).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Housing Tracker reported weekly inventory for the 54 metro areas for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

In 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased slightly early in the year and then declined significantly through the end of each year.

In 2013 (Blue), inventory increased for most of the year before declining seasonally during the holidays.  Inventory in 2013 finished up 2.7% YoY compared to 2012.

Inventory in 2014 (Red) is now 13.7% above the same week in 2013. 

Inventory is still very low - but I expect inventory to be above the same week in 2012 very soon (prices bottomed in early 2012).   This increase in inventory should slow price increases, and might lead to price declines in some areas.

Note: One of the key questions for 2014 will be: How much will inventory increase?  My guess was inventory would be up 10% to 15% year-over-year at the end of 2014.  Right now it looks like inventory might increase more than I expected.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2014 12:26:00 PM

Josh Brown mentioned a post today at A Wealth of Common Sense: How The Unemployment Rate Affects Stock Market Performance. The author is discussing investing ...

The unemployment rate is a perfect example of the fact that the best times to invest are when things seem the worst.

This reminds me of something I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret

[I]t really isn't much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is "dirty" in the sense that it is unspoken. Higher unemployment keeps wage growth down, and helps with margins and earnings - and higher unemployment also keeps the Fed on the sidelines. Yes, corporations like to see job growth, so people have enough confidence to spend (and they can have a few more customers). And they definitely don't want to see Depression era unemployment - but a slowly declining unemployment rate (even at 9%) with some job growth is considered OK.

And from others, like Kash Mansori, also in 2011: Why a Bad Job Market is Good News for Some

[T]his opens up an interesting line of reasoning, one that is certainly not new but which this data reminds us of. If a bad labor market means that workers get a smaller share of the productivity they bring to their employers, then the owners of companies will have a strong preference for a weak labor market. Firms don't like recessions, of course -- it's hard to make money when your sales are falling. But companies do enjoy the way that a very slow recovery in the job market can allow them to keep wages down, and thus keep a larger share of the output of their workers for themselves.

And from Paul Krugman: The Plight of the Employed

And may I suggest that employers, although they’ll never say so in public, like this situation? That is, there’s a significant upside to them from the still-weak economy. I don’t think I’d go so far as to say that there’s a deliberate effort to keep the economy weak; but corporate America certainly isn’t feeling much pain, and the plight of workers is actually a plus from their point of view.

The good news is we might finally be seeing the beginning of more wage growth.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2014 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 49 in June, up from 45 in May. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Four Points in June

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose four points in to reach a level of 49 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. It remains one point shy of the threshold for what is considered good building conditions.
...
“Consumers are still hesitant, and are waiting for clear signals of full-fledged economic recovery before making a home purchase,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Builders are reacting accordingly, and are moving cautiously in adding inventory.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three index components posted gains in June. Most notably, the component gauging current sales conditions increased six points to 54. The component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose three points to 59 and the component measuring buyer traffic increased by three to 36.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South and Northeast each edged up one point to 49 and 34, respectively, while the West held steady at 47. The Midwest fell a single point to 46.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was the fifth consecutive reading below 50.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2014 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in May after having declined 0.3 percent in April. The decrease in April was previously reported to have been 0.6 percent. Manufacturing output increased 0.6 percent in May after having moved down 0.1 percent in the previous month. In May, the output of mines gained 1.3 percent and the production of utilities decreased 0.8 percent. At 103.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 4.3 percent above its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry increased 0.2 percentage point in May to 79.1 percent, a rate that is 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2013) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.2 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 79.1% is 1.0 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2012 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased 0.6% in May to 103.7. This is 23.8% above the recession low, and 2.9% above the pre-recession peak.

The monthly change for both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were above expectations - and April was revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2014 07:48:00 PM

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, down from 19.0 in May (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.9%.

• At 10:00 AM, the June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 47, up from 45 in May. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Weekend:
• FOMC Preview: More Tapering
• Schedule for Week of June 15th

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 3 and DOW futures are down 25 (fair value).

Oil prices moved up over the last week with WTI futures at $107.42 per barrel and Brent at $113.09 per barrel.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $3.65 per gallon (might move up soon due to higher oil prices).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com