Monday, June 16, 2014

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 49 in June

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2014 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 49 in June, up from 45 in May. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Four Points in June

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose four points in to reach a level of 49 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. It remains one point shy of the threshold for what is considered good building conditions.
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“Consumers are still hesitant, and are waiting for clear signals of full-fledged economic recovery before making a home purchase,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Builders are reacting accordingly, and are moving cautiously in adding inventory.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three index components posted gains in June. Most notably, the component gauging current sales conditions increased six points to 54. The component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose three points to 59 and the component measuring buyer traffic increased by three to 36.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South and Northeast each edged up one point to 49 and 34, respectively, while the West held steady at 47. The Midwest fell a single point to 46.
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HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was the fifth consecutive reading below 50.