by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2014 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April:

Personal income increased $43.7 billion, or 0.3 percent ... in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $8.1 billion, or 0.1 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.3 percent in April, in contrast to an increase of 0.8 percent in March. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March. ... The April price index for PCE increased 1.6 percent from April a year ago. The April PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent from April a year ago.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April 2013 (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

This is just one month for Q2 - and the month-to-month decline in PCE was due to the surge in spending in March (following the severe winter).  

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2014 08:59:00 PM

From the WSJ: Borrowers Tap Their Homes at a Hot Clip

A rebound in house prices and near-record-low interest rates are prompting homeowners to borrow against their properties, marking the return of a practice that was all the rage before the financial crisis.

Home-equity lines of credit, or Helocs, and home-equity loans jumped 8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance said Thursday. The $13 billion extended was the most for the start of a year since 2009. Inside Mortgage Finance noted the bulk of the home-equity originations were Helocs.

While that is still far below the peak of $113 billion during the third quarter of 2006, this year's gains are the latest evidence that the tight credit conditions that have defined mortgage lending in recent years are starting to loosen.

This is still a low level (not really a "hot clip"), but this is an increase from last year. I've been expecting Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) to turn positive soon, and maybe the Q1 Flow of Funds report will suggest positive MEW (to be released by the Fed on June 5th).

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May. The consensus is for a decrease to 61.0, down from 63.0 in April.

• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 82.5, up from the preliminary reading of 81.8, but down from the April reading of 84.1.

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2014 02:22:00 PM

The BEA reported this morning that GDP declined at a 1.0% annual rate in Q1. This is disappointing, but not concerning looking forward.

The key driver of the downward revision was a much larger negative change in private inventories (see table below that shows the contribution to GDP from each major category). In the advance release, change in private inventories subtracted 0.57 percentage points from GDP. With the 2nd release - based on more data - change in private inventories subtracted 1.61 percentage point. This was payback from the positive contribution in Q3 last year (change in private inventories tends to bounce around quarter-to-quarter).

There were also downward revisions to investment in nonresidential structure, trade, and state and local government.

PCE was revised up from 3.0% to 3.1% in Q1 (annualized growth rate), and the contribution from PCE to GDP increased slightly.

This weakness will not continue - growth has already picked up in Q2.  And I expect both residential investment and state and local governments to add to growth soon.  And even investment in nonresidential structures should turn positive.

The growth story is intact.  No worries.

Revision: Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
	Advance	2nd Release	Revision
GDP, Percent change at annual rate:	0.1	-1.0	-1.1
PCE, Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures	2.04	2.09	0.05
Investment, Percentage points at annual rates:
Nonresidential Structures	0.00	-0.21	-0.21
Equipment	-0.32	-0.18	0.14
Intellectual property products	0.06	0.19	0.13
Residential	-0.18	-0.16	0.02
Change in private inventories	-0.57	-1.62	-1.05
Trade, Percentage points at annual rates:
Net exports of goods and services	-0.83	-0.95	-0.12
Government, Percentage points at annual rates:
Federal Government	0.05	0.05	0.00
State and Local	-0.14	-0.20	-0.06

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2014 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Edge Up in April

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 0.4 percent to 97.8 in April from 97.4 in March, but is 9.2 percent below April 2013 when it was 107.7.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast increased 0.6 percent to 79.3 in April, but is 12.0 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 5.0 percent to 99.2 in April, but is 6.9 percent below April 2013. Pending home sales in the South slipped 0.6 percent to an index of 111.9 in April, and are 6.4 percent below a year ago. The index in the West declined 2.9 percent in April to 88.4, and is 15.0 percent below April 2013.

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in May and June.

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2014 08:41:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. ...

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP was estimated to have increased 0.1 percent. ...

The second estimate of the first-quarter percent change in real GDP was revised down 1.1 percentage points, or $43.7 billion, from the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting a downward revision to private inventory investment and an upward revision to imports that were partly offset by an upward revision to exports.

Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 3.0% to 3.1%.

The DOL reports:

In the week ending May 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 300,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 326,000 to 327,000. The 4-week moving average was 311,500, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week 's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since August 11, 2007 when it was 311,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 322,500 to 322,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was revised up from 326,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 311,500.

This was below the consensus forecast of 317,000.  The 4-week average is at the lowest level since 2007 and at normal levels for an expansion.