by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2014 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8% from April 2013. Sales in March were revised up from a 1.1% increase to a 1.5% increase. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $434.6 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent from the previous month, and 4.0 percent above April 2013.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).


Retail sales ex-autos were unchanged. 

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.6% on a YoY basis (4.0% for all retail sales).

The increase in April was well below consensus expectations - however sales in March were revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2014 07:45:00 PM

This could be significant from Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Regulator Extends Greater Shield to Lenders on Mortgage 'Put-Backs'

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will extend new waivers to lenders ...

The changes are significant because some industry analysts and economists have said they could lay the groundwork for lenders to relax credit standards. Lenders and policy makers have faulted ambiguous rules around mortgage put-backs for lending standards that they say are unnecessarily rigid.
...
The FHFA's new director, Mel Watt, is set to make his first public speech on Tuesday in Washington.
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.

• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for April will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.4% in April, and to increase 0.6% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for March. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.

• At 11:00 AM, the Q1 2014 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit will be released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Note: "In conjunction with the release of the report, the New York Fed will also post an update to a recent blog discussing the impact of student loan debt on housing and auto markets."

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2014 05:11:00 PM

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory ...

There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then usually peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for March).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Housing Tracker reported weekly inventory for the 54 metro areas for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

In 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased slightly early in the year and then declined significantly through the end of each year.

In 2013 (Blue), inventory increased for most of the year before declining seasonally during the holidays.  Inventory in 2013 finished up 2.7% YoY compared to 2012.

Inventory in 2014 (Red) is now 9.4% above the same week in 2013.

Inventory is still very low - still below the level in 2012 (yellow) when prices started increasing - but this increase in inventory should slow house price increases. 

Note: One of the key questions for 2014 will be: How much will inventory increase?  My guess is inventory will be up 10% to 15% year-over-year by the end of 2014 (inventory would still be below normal).

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2014 04:11:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in April.

Note: From Lawler:

While I don’t yet have enough report/data to produce a “decent” projection for April existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors, the data I’ve seen so far seems to be consistent with a annualized seasonally adjusted sales pace of about 4.67 million.

From CR: The NAR reported sales of 4.59 million SAAR in March, and 4.99 million SAAR in April 2013.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets, mostly because of a sharp decline in short sales.

Foreclosures are down in most of these areas too, although foreclosures are up in the mid-Atlantic area and Las Vegas (there was a state law change that slowed foreclosures dramatically in Nevada at the end of 2011 - so it isn't a surprise that foreclosures are up a little year-over-year).

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year.  As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably decline.  Omaha's cash share is up.

In general it appears the housing market is slowly moving back to normal.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	Apr-14	Apr-13	Apr-14	Apr-13	Apr-14	Apr-13	Apr-14	Apr-13
Las Vegas	12.4%	32.5%	11.4%	10.0%	23.8%	42.5%	41.4%	59.3%
Reno**	15.0%	33.0%	6.0%	8.0%	21.0%	41.0%
Phoenix	4.0%	12.7%	6.5%	11.3%	10.5%	24.1%	32.2%	42.0%
Minneapolis	5.0%	7.4%	15.9%	24.0%	20.9%	31.4%
Mid-Atlantic	5.9%	9.9%	10.0%	8.6%	15.9%	18.5%	19.5%	19.4%
Memphis*			16.6%	24.7%
Toledo							33.4%	40.8%
Des Moines							17.1%	19.6%
Omaha							22.3%	17.4%
Tucson							30.5%	33.5%
Georgia***							34.3%	N/A
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2014 12:13:00 PM

Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs. Then prices started to decline sharply, and prices declined over 25% from the highs by June.

The price increases early last year were due to stronger demand (more housing starts) and supply constraints (framing lumber suppliers were working to bring more capacity online).

Prices didn't increase as much early in 2014 (more supply, smaller "surge" in demand), however prices haven't fallen as sharply either.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through last week (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.

Right now Random Lengths prices are down about 2% from a year ago, and CME futures are up about 4% year-over-year.