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Monday, May 12, 2014

Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2014 04:11:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in April.

Note: From Lawler:

While I don’t yet have enough report/data to produce a “decent” projection for April existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors, the data I’ve seen so far seems to be consistent with a annualized seasonally adjusted sales pace of about 4.67 million.
From CR: The NAR reported sales of 4.59 million SAAR in March, and 4.99 million SAAR in April 2013.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets, mostly because of a sharp decline in short sales.

Foreclosures are down in most of these areas too, although foreclosures are up in the mid-Atlantic area and Las Vegas (there was a state law change that slowed foreclosures dramatically in Nevada at the end of 2011 - so it isn't a surprise that foreclosures are up a little year-over-year).

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year.  As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably decline.  Omaha's cash share is up.

In general it appears the housing market is slowly moving back to normal.

 Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Apr-14Apr-13Apr-14Apr-13Apr-14Apr-13Apr-14Apr-13
Las Vegas12.4%32.5%11.4%10.0%23.8%42.5%41.4%59.3%
Reno**15.0%33.0%6.0%8.0%21.0%41.0%  
Phoenix4.0%12.7%6.5%11.3%10.5%24.1%32.2%42.0%
Minneapolis5.0%7.4%15.9%24.0%20.9%31.4%  
Mid-Atlantic 5.9%9.9%10.0%8.6%15.9%18.5%19.5%19.4%
Memphis*  16.6%24.7%    
Toledo      33.4%40.8%
Des Moines      17.1%19.6%
Omaha      22.3%17.4%
Tucson      30.5%33.5%
Georgia***      34.3%N/A
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS