by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2014 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Remain Soft in March

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million in March from 4.60 million in February, and are 7.5 percent below the 4.96 million-unit pace in March 2013. Last month’s sales volume remained the slowest since July 2012, when it was 4.59 million.

Total housing inventory at the end of March rose 4.7 percent to 1.99 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 5.0 months in February. Unsold inventory is 3.1 percent above a year ago, when there was a 4.7-month supply.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in March (4.59 million SAAR) were slightly lower than last month, and were 7.5% below the March 2013 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.99 million in March from 1.90 million in February.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory increased 3.1% year-over-year in March compared to March 2013.   This year-over-year increase in inventory suggests inventory bottomed early last year.

Months of supply was at 5.2 months in March.

This was slightly above expectations of sales of 4.56 million.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory - and the key story is inventory is still low, but up year-over-year.    I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2014 07:01:00 AM

According to Black Knight's First Look report for March, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in March compared to February, and declined by more than 16% year-over-year. This is the lowest level for mortgage delinquencies since October 2007.

Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in March and were down 37% over the last year.  Foreclosure inventory was at the lowest level since October 2008.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) decreased to 5.52% in March from 5.97% in February. The normal rate for delinquencies is around 4.5% to 5%.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 2.13% in March from 2.22% in February.  

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 538,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 619,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for March in early May.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	March 2014	February 2014	March 2013
Delinquent	5.52%	5.97%	6.59%
In Foreclosure	2.13%	2.22%	3.38%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,571,000	1,749,000	1,842,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,199,000	1,242,000	1,466,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	1,070,000	1,115,000	1,689,000
Total Properties	3,840,000	4,106,000	4,997,000

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2014 06:59:00 PM

Another builder reports below consensus results, from housing economist Tom Lawler: NVR: Net Orders Off Despite Jump in Community Count; Increased Mortgage Regulations Hit Mortgage Banking Income

NVR, Inc. the nation’s fourth largest home builder with a heavy concentration in the Mid-Atlantic region, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2014 totaled 3,325, down 5.3% from the comparable quarter of 2013. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 12% last quarter, down from 13% a year ago. The company’s average community count last quarter was 481, up 10.6% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Home settlements totaled 2,211 last quarter, down 2.7% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average settlement price of $361,400, up 9.4% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of March was 6,059, down 2.5% from last March.

NVR’s operating income from its mortgage banking operation plunged by 91% from a year ago last quarter, with the decline attributed to a “more competitive” mortgage lending market, as well as higher G&A expenses “due to increased staffing in response to increased mortgage regulations and expected higher loan volume.”

NVR owned or controlled 65,800 lots at the end of March, up 10.2% from last March.

The company’s overall results last quarter were well below “consensus.”

Tuesday:
• Early, the Black Knight "First Look" at Mortgage performance (delinquencies and foreclosures) in March.

• At 9:00 AM ET, the FHFA House Price Index for February 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase.

• At 10:00 AM, the Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.56 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in February were at a 4.60 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.64 million SAAR.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. The consensus is for a reading of 0, up from -7 in March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2014 04:27:00 PM

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory ...

There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then usually peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for February - March inventory data will be released tomorrow).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Housing Tracker reported weekly inventory for the 54 metro areas for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

In 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased slightly early in the year and then declined significantly through the end of each year.

In 2013 (Blue), inventory increased for most of the year before declining seasonally during the holidays.  Inventory in 2013 finished up 2.7% YoY.

Inventory in 2014 (Red) is now 6.1% above the same week in 2013.

Inventory is still very low, but this increase in inventory should slow house price increases. 

Note: One of the key questions for 2014 will be: How much will inventory increase?  My guess is inventory will be up 10% to 15% year-over-year by the end of 2014 (inventory would still be below normal).

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2014 01:25:00 PM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Growth Moderated in March

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.20 in March from +0.53 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions to the index in March, and two of the four categories decreased from February. ...

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to a neutral reading in March from –0.14 in February, marking its third consecutive nonpositive value. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was at its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was at the historical trend in March (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.