by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2013 06:59:00 PM

From Tim Duy: Crazy Fedspeak

There are two interviews of note hitting the wires today. One is with Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart, in which he leaves open the possibility of a September beginning to the tapering process. ... then we see the comments of Chicago Federal Reserve President and noted dove Charles Evans ... via the Wall Street Journal:

During a breakfast briefing with reporters Mr. Evans said, “I clearly would not rule that out,” when asked if the Fed might begin throttling back on its asset purchases at the Federal Reserve‘s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting....

...The Fed is “quite likely to reduce the flow purchase rate starting later this year,” Mr. Evans said. “I couldn’t tell you exactly which month that will be.”

...  If Evans thinks it is possible, then it must be very possible, despite only another month's data between now and then.
...
Bottom Line: I think the Fed very much wants to taper in September, and hence why I am wary to believe we need to see some significant acceleration in the data to push them in that direction.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 1:00 PM, President Barack Obama will answer questions about housing in an event hosted by Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff. Submit questions here. The virtual event will be streamed on zillow.com/whitehouse and Whitehouse.gov.

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for June from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $15.0 billion in June.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2013 04:18:00 PM

Just a screen grab from a Jim the Realtor video. Jim says "That doesn't seem right."

No kidding ...


Click on picture for larger image.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2013 01:36:00 PM

This was released earlier today: Trulia Reports Asking Home Price Slowdown Amid Rising Mortgage Rates, Expanding Inventory, and Declining Investor Interest

Asking home prices are now starting to lose steam as mortgage rates rise, inventory expands, and investor demand declines. Nationally, asking prices dropped 0.3 percent in July – the first month-over-month (M-o-M) decline since November 2012. Seasonally adjusted, prices rose 3.3 percent quarter-over quarter (Q-o-Q), down from a peak of 4.2 percent in April. Year-over-year (Y-o-Y), prices are up 11 percent nationally; however, this change is an average over the past 12 months and is therefore slower to show changes than monthly and quarterly numbers.

In 64 out of 100 U.S. metros, the quarterly asking home price gain was lower than in the previous quarter. This slowdown was most apparent in the West Coast where prices have rebounded strongly already. Among housing markets where asking prices rose sharply Y-o-Y, price gains dipped the most Q-o-Q in Las Vegas, Oakland, and San Francisco. ...

Rents rose 3.9 percent year-over-year nationally, which was a big increase compared with inflation or income growth, but small compared with asking home price gains. Even as asking home prices slow down, July was the first time that prices outpaced rents in the 25 largest rental markets since Trulia started tracking rent trends in March 2011. ...

If you were worried about a housing bubble, July’s asking-price slowdown will probably be the best news you’ve heard this year,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “The asking home price slowdown in July could be the start of the return to normal price gains. The blazing fast price increases we’ve seen in recent months could not last, especially with rising mortgage rates, expanding inventory, and declining investor interest.”
emphasis added

Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests slower house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.

More from Kolko: Bubblephobes, Rejoice: Asking Home Prices Declined in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2013 11:16:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 3.9 million job openings on the last business day of June, little changed from May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.1 percent) and separations rate (3.0 percent) also were little changed in June. ...
...
Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. ... The number of quits (not seasonally adjusted) was little changed over the 12 months ending in June for total nonfarm, total private, government, all industries, and all four regions.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for June, the most recent employment report was for July.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings increased in June to 3.936 million, up from 3.907 million in May. The number of job openings (yellow) is the highest since 2008, but openings are only up 4% year-over-year compared to June 2012. 

Quits were down in June, and quits are up about 1% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Not much changes month-to-month in this report - and the data is noisy month-to-month, but the general trend suggests a gradually improving labor market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2013 10:02:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports June Home Prices Rise by 11.9 Percent Year Over Year

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 11.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in June 2013 compared to June 2012. This change represents the 16th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.9 percent in June 2013 compared to May 2013.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11 percent in June 2013 compared to June 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1.8 percent in June 2013 compared to May 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that July 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.5 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2012 and rise by 1.8 percent on a month-over-month basis from June 2013.
...
“In the first six months of 2013, the U.S. housing market appreciated a remarkable 10 percent,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This trend in home price gains is moving at the fastest pace since 1977.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.9% in June, and is up 11.9% over the last year.  This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this is usually the strongest time of the year for price increases.

The index is off 19% from the peak - and is up 20.7% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.

The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for sixteen consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This matches the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.

This was another very strong month-to-month increase.