Tuesday, August 06, 2013

Trulia: "Asking Home Price Slowdown Amid Rising Mortgage Rates, Expanding Inventory, and Declining Investor Interest"

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2013 01:36:00 PM

This was released earlier today: Trulia Reports Asking Home Price Slowdown Amid Rising Mortgage Rates, Expanding Inventory, and Declining Investor Interest

Asking home prices are now starting to lose steam as mortgage rates rise, inventory expands, and investor demand declines. Nationally, asking prices dropped 0.3 percent in July – the first month-over-month (M-o-M) decline since November 2012. Seasonally adjusted, prices rose 3.3 percent quarter-over quarter (Q-o-Q), down from a peak of 4.2 percent in April. Year-over-year (Y-o-Y), prices are up 11 percent nationally; however, this change is an average over the past 12 months and is therefore slower to show changes than monthly and quarterly numbers.

In 64 out of 100 U.S. metros, the quarterly asking home price gain was lower than in the previous quarter. This slowdown was most apparent in the West Coast where prices have rebounded strongly already. Among housing markets where asking prices rose sharply Y-o-Y, price gains dipped the most Q-o-Q in Las Vegas, Oakland, and San Francisco. ...

Rents rose 3.9 percent year-over-year nationally, which was a big increase compared with inflation or income growth, but small compared with asking home price gains. Even as asking home prices slow down, July was the first time that prices outpaced rents in the 25 largest rental markets since Trulia started tracking rent trends in March 2011. ...

If you were worried about a housing bubble, July’s asking-price slowdown will probably be the best news you’ve heard this year,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “The asking home price slowdown in July could be the start of the return to normal price gains. The blazing fast price increases we’ve seen in recent months could not last, especially with rising mortgage rates, expanding inventory, and declining investor interest.”
emphasis added
Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests slower house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.

More from Kolko: Bubblephobes, Rejoice: Asking Home Prices Declined in July