by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2013 08:16:00 PM

This will be an interesting case to watch, from Reuters: Stockton, California bankruptcy eligibility trial starts

As the biggest U.S. city to file for bankruptcy, the outcome for Stockton will be an important test case for the $3.7 trillion U.S. municipal debt market. The hearing is expected to last most of this week.

Stockton, along with Jefferson County in Alabama and smaller San Bernardino, California, has said its bondholders will be asked to take losses.
...
Lawyers for bondholders and insurers, which will have to repay investors for any capital losses, argue the decision by Stockton to not seek to impair its largest creditor, the California Public Employees' Retirement System, shows a lack of good faith - a reason that should block Stockton's request for bankruptcy protection under federal bankruptcy law.

Usually employees, including pensions, come before bondholders and insurers in a bankruptcy case.  But I don't know all the details of this case and I'm looking forward to reading the ruling.

Tuesday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.5% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January will be released. The consensus is for a 8.2% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for January. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 8.0% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.8% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 425 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in February from 437 thousand in January. Even with the forecast decline in sales rate, this would be a 16% year-over-year increase in sales.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. The consensus is for a reading of 5.5 for this survey, down from 6.0 in February (Above zero is expansion).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 69.0.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2013 03:57:00 PM

Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I'm tracking inventory weekly this year.

In normal times, there is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The NAR data is monthly and released with a lag.  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year (to normalize the data).

In 2010 (blue), inventory followed the normal seasonal pattern, however in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

So far - through March 25th - inventory is increasing faster than in 2011 and 2012. Housing Tracker reports inventory is down -21.2% compared to the same week in 2012 - still a rapid year-over-year decline.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

In 2010, inventory was up 15% by the end of March, and close to 20% by the end of April.

For 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased about 5% at the peak and then declined for the remainder of the year.

So far in 2013, inventory is up 7.5% (above the peak percentage increase for 2011 and 2012) Right now I think inventory will not bottom until 2014, but it is still possible that inventory will bottom this year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2013 01:23:00 PM

This is a response to some analysts who think central bankers are currently following a "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy. Fed Chaiman Bernanke disagrees (so do I).

From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: Monetary Policy and the Global Economy. A few excerpts:

The uncoordinated abandonment of the gold standard in the early 1930s gave rise to the idea of "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies. According to this analysis, as put forth by important contemporary economists like Joan Robinson, exchange rate depreciations helped the economy whose currency had weakened by making the country more competitive internationally.5 Indeed, the decline in the value of the pound after 1931 was associated with a relatively early recovery from the Depression by the United Kingdom, in part because of some rebound in exports. However, according to this view, the gains to the depreciating country were equaled or exceeded by the losses to its trading partners, which became less internationally competitive--hence, "beggar thy neighbor." Over time, so-called competitive depreciations became associated in the minds of historians with the tariff wars that followed the passage of the Smoot-Hawley tariff in the United States. Both types of policies were decried--and in some textbooks, still are--as having prolonged the Depression by disrupting trade patterns while leading to an ultimately fruitless and destructive battle over shrinking international markets.

Economists still agree that Smoot-Hawley and the ensuing tariff wars were highly counterproductive and contributed to the depth and length of the global Depression. However, modern research on the Depression, beginning with the seminal 1985 paper by Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey Sachs, has changed our view of the effects of the abandonment of the gold standard.6 Although it is true that leaving the gold standard and the resulting currency depreciation conferred a temporary competitive advantage in some cases, modern research shows that the primary benefit of leaving gold was that it freed countries to use appropriately expansionary monetary policies. By 1935 or 1936, when essentially all major countries had left the gold standard and exchange rates were market-determined, the net trade effects of the changes in currency values were certainly small. Yet the global economy as a whole was much stronger than it had been in 1931. The reason was that, in shedding the strait jacket of the gold standard, each country became free to use monetary policy in a way that was more commensurate with achieving full employment at home. Moreover, and critically, countries also benefited from stronger growth in trading partners that purchased their exports. In sharp contrast to the tariff wars, monetary reflation in the 1930s was a positive-sum exercise, whose benefits came mainly from higher domestic demand in all countries, not from trade diversion arising from changes in exchange rates.

The lessons for the present are clear. Today most advanced industrial economies remain, to varying extents, in the grip of slow recoveries from the Great Recession. With inflation generally contained, central banks in these countries are providing accommodative monetary policies to support growth. Do these policies constitute competitive devaluations? To the contrary, because monetary policy is accommodative in the great majority of advanced industrial economies, one would not expect large and persistent changes in the configuration of exchange rates among these countries. The benefits of monetary accommodation in the advanced economies are not created in any significant way by changes in exchange rates; they come instead from the support for domestic aggregate demand in each country or region. Moreover, because stronger growth in each economy confers beneficial spillovers to trading partners, these policies are not "beggar-thy-neighbor" but rather are positive-sum, "enrich-thy-neighbor" actions.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2013 10:45:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up

Texas factory activity increased in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.2 to 9.9, indicating a slightly faster pace of output growth. The share of manufacturers noting a decrease in production fell to its lowest level in two years.

Other survey measures also suggested a pickup in manufacturing activity, with the new orders and shipments indexes moving up strongly in March after dipping in February. The new orders index came in at 8.7, up from 2.8, and the shipments index rose 8 points to 10.6.

Perceptions of broader business conditions improved in March. The general business activity index rose from 2.2 to 7.4, reaching its highest level in a year. The company outlook index moved up from 6.3 to 9.6.

Labor market indicators remained mixed. The employment index has been in positive territory so far in 2013 and edged up to 2.6 in March. ... The hours worked index remained slightly negative but ticked up to from –3 to –2.4.
emphasis added

All of the regional manufacturing surveys released so far have indicated expansion in March, and this suggests a pickup in overall manufacturing following a weak period over the last 6 to 8 months.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2013 08:43:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Activity Improved in February

Led by gains in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.44 in February from –0.49 in January. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from January, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in February.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.09 in February from +0.28 in January, marking its fourth consecutive reading above zero. February’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity improved in February, and growth was somewhat above its historical trend (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.