by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2013 04:38:00 PM

On Friday, at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is for an increase of 171,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.8% (from 7.9% in January).

Here is a summary of recent data:

• The ADP employment report showed an increase of 198,000 private sector payroll jobs in February. This was above expectations of 173,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report for any one month, although the methodology changed last year. In general this suggests employment growth somewhat above expectations.

• The ISM manufacturing employment index declined in February to 52.6%, down from 54.0% in January. A historical correlation between the ISM manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS reported payroll jobs for manufacturing declined slightly in February.

The ISM non-manufacturing (service) employment index decreased slightly in February to 57.2%, down from 57.5% in January. A historical correlation between the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for services, suggests that private sector BLS reported payroll jobs for services increased about 250,000 in February.

Added together, the ISM reports suggests about 245,000 jobs added in November.

• Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged about 355,000 in February. This was up slightly from January, but near the lowest level since early 2008.

For the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month), initial claims were at 366,000; up from 335,000 in January.

• The final February Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 77.6, up from the January reading of 73.8. This is frequently coincident with changes in the labor market and stock market, but also strongly related to gasoline prices and other factors. This might suggest some increase in employment, but the level still suggests a weak labor market.

• The small business index from Intuit showed 15,000 payroll jobs added, down from 25,000 in January. This is disappointing.

• And on the unemployment rate from Gallup: Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate, without seasonal adjustment, increases to 8.0%

Gallup's unadjusted employment rate for the U.S. workforce was 8.0% for the month of February, a slight uptick from 7.8% in January, but down markedly from 9.1% in February 2012.

Gallup's seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February was 7.6%, a modest increase from 7.3% in January, but down a full percentage point from February 2012.

Note: So far the Gallup numbers haven't been very useful in predicting the BLS unemployment rate.

• Conclusion: The employment related data was mixed in February.  The ADP and ISM reports suggest an increase in hiring, but the small business index was weak, and weekly claims were slightly higher in February than in January when the BLS reported 157,000 payroll jobs were added.  There is always some randomness to the employment report, but my guess is around the consensus of 171,000 jobs.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2013 03:15:00 PM

Analyst Ivy Zelman was one of the few to correctly call both the top and bottom for housing (Tom Lawler and your humble blogger were also correct). Today, on CNBC, Zelman made several very positive comments on housing:

"I think we are in Nirvana for housing."

"I'm probably the most bullish I've ever been fundamentally [on housing], and I'm dating myself, but I've been around for over 20 years and I've seen a lot of ups and downs".

[We are in] "the first or second inning of the fundamental recovery that could be five to ten years in duration ..."

"I think home prices could go up for four to six years in duration ..."

CR Note: Obviously I'm also very positive on housing. And I'm positive on the overall economy too -  and a key reason is, historically, housing is the best leading indicator for the economy.  In the Business Insider interview late last year, I said: "I’m not a roaring bull, but looking forward, this is the best shape we’ve been in since ’97". Obviously the economy is still sluggish, and the unemployment rate is very high at 7.9%, but I was looking forward - and housing is one of the key reasons The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2013 12:43:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2012 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.

According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q4 compared to Q3 2012, and is up 9% from Q4 2011. Net worth peaked at $67.4 trillion in Q3 2007, and then net worth fell to $51.4 trillion in Q1 2009 (a loss of $16 trillion). Household net worth was at $66.1 trillion in Q4 2012 (up $14.7 trillion from the trough, but still down $1.3 trillion from the peak).

The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate increased $447 billion to $17.6 trillion in Q4 2012. The value of household real estate is still $5.0 trillion below the peak.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is the Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

This ratio was relatively stable (or increasing gradually) for almost 50 years, and then we saw the stock market and housing bubbles. The ratio has been trending up and increased again in Q4.

This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q4 2012, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 46.6% - up from Q3, and the highest since Q1 2008. This was because of both an increase in house prices in Q4 (the Fed uses CoreLogic) and a reduction in mortgage debt.

Note: about 30.3% of owner occupied households had no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So the approximately 52+ million households with mortgages have far less than 46.6% equity - and millions have negative equity.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.

Mortgage debt declined by $6 billion in Q4. Mortgage debt has now declined by $1.2 trillion from the peak. Studies suggest most of the decline in debt has been because of foreclosures (or short sales), but some of the decline is from homeowners paying down debt (sometimes so they can refinance at better rates).  It appears the rate of decline is slowing.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, was up in Q4 (as house prices increased), but is just above the lows of the last 30 years. However household mortgage debt, as a percent of GDP, is still historically very high, suggesting still more deleveraging ahead for certain households.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2013 10:31:00 AM

LPS released their Mortgage Monitor report for January today. According to LPS, 7.03% of mortgages were delinquent in January, down from 7.17% in December, and down from 7.67% in January 2012.

LPS reports that 3.41% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 3.44% in December, and down from 4.23% in January 2012.

This gives a total of 10.44% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,974,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.
• 1,531,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.
• 1,703,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of ​​5,208,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in January. This is down from 6,082,000 in January 2012.

This following graph from LPS shows Foreclosure Starts and Foreclosure Sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

From LPS:

The January Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services found significant differences continue in foreclosure pipelines between states with judicial and non-judicial foreclosure processes. Though both foreclosure starts and sales rates have been relatively volatile at the national level due to the effects of regional processes and compliance issues, the foreclosure inventory in judicial states remains three times that of non-judicial states. However, according to LPS Applied Analytics Senior Vice President Herb Blecher, even this now-familiar judicial/non-judicial dichotomy is not as clearly defined as it once was.

“On average,” Blecher said, “pipeline ratios – the rate at which states are currently working through their existing backlog of loans either in foreclosure or serious delinquency – are almost twice as high in judicial states than non-judicial states. At today’s rate of foreclosure sales, it will take 62 months to clear the inventory in judicial states as compared to 32 months in non-judicial states. A few judicial states – New York and New Jersey in particular – have such extreme backlogs that their problem-loan pipelines would take decades to clear if nothing were to change.

“More recently, certain non-judicial states, such as Massachusetts and Nevada, have enacted ‘judicial-like’ legislative and/or legal actions which have greatly extended their pipeline ratios. Nevada’s ‘time to clear’ has extended from 27 months in January 2012 to 57 months as of January 2013. The change in Massachusetts has been even more pronounced. Since June of last year, its pipeline ratio has gone from 75 to 171 months. As California’s recently enacted Homeowner’s Bill of Rights is closely modeled on the Nevada legislation, we’ll be watching that state closely over the coming months to gauge its impact, as well.”

The second graph from LPS shows new problem loans by vintage.

Even after all these years, most of the problem are still from the "bubble" years.  Recent vintage loans are performing well. For recovery, the key is to clear the backlog of non-performing loans from the bubble years.   Making non-judicial states "judicial-like" is extending the pipelines and slowing the recovery.

CR Note: Several years ago I argued many foreclosures were a tragedy, but it was not a tragedy for someone to "lose their home" if they put no money down or if they had borrowed all the equity from their home. Unfortunately policymakers never recognized that distinction, and are still implementing policies to slow the foreclosure process.

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2013 08:58:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reported:

[T]otal January exports of $184.5 billion and imports of $228.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $44.4 billion, up from $38.1 billion in December, revised. January exports were $2.2 billion less than December exports of $186.6 billion. January imports were $4.1 billion more than December imports of $224.8 billion.

The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of $43.0 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through January 2013.

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports decreased in January, and imports increased (most of the increase was petroleum).

Exports are 11% above the pre-recession peak and up 3.3% compared to January 2012; imports are near the pre-recession peak, and down 1% compared to January 2012.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through January.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The increase in the trade deficit in January was mostly due to an increase in the volume of petroleum imports.

Oil averaged $94.08 per barrel in January, down slightly from $95.16 in December. 

The trade deficit with China increased to $27.8 billion in January, up from $26.0 billion in January 2012. Most of the trade deficit is still due to oil and China.

The trade deficit with the euro area was $7.7 billion in January, up slightly from $7.6 billion in January 2012.