by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2013 09:27:00 AM

Note: I've been following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of house sales in a distressed area over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales). The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

Over the last two years there was a dramatic shift from REO to short sales, and the percentage of distressed sales declined.

Note: The percent of short sales declined in January because some sellers pushed to close in 2012 before the "Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007" expired. The Act was extended for one year as part of the fiscal agreement. (Usually cancelled debt is considered income, but some mortgage debt was exlcuded as part of the Act).

This data suggests continued improvement in the Sacramento market.

In January 2013, 44.5% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was down from 51.5% last month, and down from 66.6% in January 2012. This is the lowest percentage of distressed sales - and therefore the highest percentage of conventional sales - since the association started tracking the data.

The percentage of REOs stayed increased to 14.2%, and the percentage of short sales decreased to 30.3%.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales.

There has been an increase in conventional sales recently, and there were twice as many short sales as REO sales in January. 

Total sales were down from January 2012, but conventional sales were up 51% compared to the same month last year. This is exactly what we expect to see in an improving distressed market - flat or even declining overall sales as distressed sales decline, and conventional sales increase.

Active Listing Inventory for single family homes declined 61.1% from last January.

Cash buyers accounted for 37.4% of all sales (frequently investors), and median prices were up sharply year-over-year (the mix has changed).

This continues to move in the right direction, although the market is still in distress. A "normal" market would be mostly blue on the graph, and this market is a long way from "normal". We are seeing a similar pattern in other distressed areas, with a move to more conventional sales, and a shift from REO to short sales. This is a sign of a recovering market.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2013 09:02:00 AM

Reader Mike kindly sent me all of the links to Tanta's posts in 2007 and 2008, and I'd like to share the updated list.

Note: Tanta was very knowledgeable about the mortgage industry - and many other topics - and she was my blogging partner in 2007 and 2008.

Here is the updated list: Compendium of Tanta's Posts

And other reading:

The Compleat UberNerd

CR writes: Sad News: Tanta Passes Away

NY Times: Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47

WaPo: Doris J. Dungey; Blogger Chronicled Mortgage Crisis

Tanta: In Memoriam

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2013 09:39:00 PM

On oil prices from Jim Hamilton: Dude, where's my cheap gas?

Those who have been told that oil production is booming may be wondering why the prices of oil and gasoline are climbing again.

...[Several graphs]

It's obvious from the above price charts that it makes no economic sense to add gallons of ethane or propane to gallons of crude oil to try to summarize global oil supply. But growth of natural gas liquids has been a key factor in the reported increases in "world oil supply" over the last few years and is also a key component of recent optimistic assessments of future oil production by Leonardo Maugeri and the IEA.

There is no question that the boom in production of natural gas liquids is providing a great benefit to industrial users of ethylene. But if you're waiting for it to lower the price you pay for gasoline at the pump, you may have to wait a while longer.

Monday:
• At 1:00 PM ET: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, "A Painfully Slow Recovery for America's Workers: Causes, Implications, and the Federal Reserve's Response"

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending Feb 8th
• Schedule for Week of Feb 10th

The Nikkei is closed for National Foundation Day, and the Hang Seng and Shanghai are closed for New Year.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures and DOW futures are up slightly.

Oil prices have been mixed recently with WTI futures down to $95.76 per barrel and Brent up to $118.88 per barrel. Gasoline prices are up almost 30 cents over the last few weeks.

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2013 06:29:00 PM

This is excellent article on the FHA from Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: FHA Gets Scrutiny as It Looks for a Hand

The Federal Housing Administration, a significant backer of new mortgage lending over the past five years, is facing billions of dollars in potential losses, as many loans that it guaranteed during the recession have soured. The agency's independent audit last fall showed that at its current pace, the FHA would exhaust its reserves and need $16 billion from the U.S. government to cover projected losses.

That would be a blow because since its creation in 1934, the agency has never required Treasury assistance. The FHA doesn't issue mortgages. Instead, it insures lenders against losses on loans that meet its standards. ...

... the FHA never relaxed its standards during the boom and didn't insure the toxic mortgages that inflated the housing bubble.

Before the bubble burst, lenders considered the FHA's standards too stringent, and in 2006 the agency's share of the home-purchase market fell below 5%. The FHA requires borrowers to prove they earn enough to make their monthly mortgage payment—thereby ruling out "liar loans." It backs mostly fixed-rate loans—meaning no teaser rates.
...
The most problematic loans are those insured from 2007-09, particularly from a program that allowed home sellers to make "gifts" of down payments to buyers through nonprofit groups. FHA officials belatedly prevailed on Congress to pull the plug on those risky lending programs in 2008.

The last two sentences refer to the owner financed "DAPs" or "downpayment assistance programs". I wrote extensively about DAPs during the bubble - were the owner "donated" the downpayment to the buyer through a third party "charity". The FHA tried to eliminate insuring those loans, the IRS called the programs a "scam", but Congress kept the program in place until 2008. Many of those loans went bad, significantly hurting the FHA's (and eventually taxpayers) finances. Of course the FHA also insured loans while house prices declined, and a large number of those loans defaulted too.

Some of my posts on DAPs: from 2006: Housing: IRS Raps DAPs, 2007: FHA to Ban DAPs and 2008: Ding-Dong! The DAP Is Dead. And from Tanta in 2007: DAP for UberNerds. Tanta concluded:

Supporting DAPs means supporting property sellers--particularly but not limited to builders and developers--and the "entrepreneurs" who form "nonprofits" to extract fees from naive homebuyers, not to mention loan originators who pocket higher commissions, with the risk being carried by government insurance. It is, precisely, the kind of sleazy, conflict-ridden, self-serving "initiative," overtly "faith-based" or its sort-of secular equivalent "dream-based," that thrives in an environment where regulation is dismantled or unenforced and "government" is bashed with one hand and milked with the other. It is an "innovation" just like plainer, older-fashioned forms of money-laundering are "innovations." It takes a profound ideological blindness to march behind the DAP banner in the name of "helping first time homebuyers."

And now we are seeing the consequences of that bad policy.  DAPs aren't the only reason the FHA is facing a shortfall, but they played a key role in damaging the FHA's finances.

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2013 02:43:00 PM

The roller coaster ride for gasoline prices continues ...

From the Daily Democrat: Gas prices hit $4 in California

Gas prices are above or near an average of $4 a gallon statewide, and are already well over that dreaded mark in Southern California. GasBuddy.com showed gas selling for $4.01 on Thursday, while the AAA listed the state average at $3.99 -- a jump of three cents from Wednesday, 22 cents from a week ago and 37 cents from last month.

... the record of $4.67 was reached on Oct. 9 [2012] ...

The skyrocketing prices could level off in a week or so, then ease for a few months before beginning their usual climb before Memorial Day.

"My forecast is for gasoline prices in California to level off, then go back down before Valentine's Day to an average of $3.90 per gallon," analyst Bob van der Valk said. "The good news is refineries are going to get back online in the next six weeks and gasoline prices will level off and perhaps go back down below $4 per gallon."

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up over 30 cents per gallon from the low in January, and up sharply over the last two weeks.

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com