by Bill McBride on 2/09/2013 01:11:00 PM
Saturday, February 09, 2013
• Summary for Week Ending Feb 8th
The key reports for this week will be the January retail sales report on Wednesday, and January Industrial Production on Friday.
Also for manufacturing, the February NY Fed (Empire state) survey will be released on Friday.
1:00 PM ET: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, "A Painfully Slow Recovery for America's Workers: Causes, Implications, and the Federal Reserve's Response"
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. The consensus is for an increase to 89.5 from 88.0 in December.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.
This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings increased slightly in November to 3.676 million, up from 3.665 million in October. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 12% year-over-year compared to November 2011.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for January will be released.
This graph shows monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline) through December. Retail sales are up 25.4% from the bottom, and now 9.7% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.1% in January, and to increase 0.2% ex-autos.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 360 thousand from 366 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of minus 2.0, up from minus 7.8 in January (below zero is contraction).
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January.
This shows industrial production since 1967 through December.
The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production in January, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.9%.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 75.0, up from 73.8.