by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2012 08:52:00 PM

As expected - no progress on the "fiscal cliff".   From the WaPo: Senate negotiators search for deal to avoid the ‘fiscal cliff’

Still no deal.

There were signs of renewed effort in the talks to resolve the “fiscal cliff” crisis late Sunday afternoon. For one thing, direct talks had begun between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Vice President Biden. Republicans exiting a mid-afternoon caucus meeting said that McConnell had excused himself to take a call from the vice president.

Those two Washington veterans have become the capital’s unofficial closers, hammering out the agreement that resolved a fight over tax cuts in late 2010, and the debt-ceiling crisis in August 2011.

But their task could could prove far more difficult this time around.

Update: Most market to close as normal, fixed income will close early. Happy New Year to all!

Monday economic release:
• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for December will be released. This is the last of the regional surveys for December. The consensus is an increase to 1.0 from -2.8 in November (above zero is expansion).

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending Dec 28th
• Schedule for Week of Dec 30th

The Asian markets are mostly red tonight; the Shanghai Composite index is up, and the Hang Seng down.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 8 and DOW futures are down 68.

Oil prices have moved up a recently withWTI futures at $90.65 per barrel and Brent at $110.41 per barrel. Gasoline prices have also increased a little recently.

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2012 05:03:00 PM

According to housingtracker, median asking prices were up 2.5% year-over-year in December. We can't read too much into this increase because these are just asking prices, and median prices can be distorted by the mix. As an example, the median asking price might have increased just because there are fewer low priced foreclosures listed for sale.

Note: The Trulia asking price index is adjusted for both mix and seasonality, but the housingtracker data is just the median, the 25th percentile and 75th percentile - and is impacted by both changes in the mix and seasonality.

But with those caveats, here is a graph of asking prices compared to the year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

Click on graph for larger image.

The Case-Shiller index is in red.  The Case-Shiller Composite 20 index was up 4.3% year-over-year in October, and will probably be up close to 6% in 2012.

The brief period in 2010 with a year-over-year increase in the repeat sales index was related to the housing tax credit.

Also note that the 25th percentile took the biggest hit (that was probably the flood of low end foreclosures on the market).

Now the year-over-year change in median asking prices has been positive for thirteen consecutive months. We have to be careful about the mix (fewer foreclosures on the market), but this suggests year-over-year selling prices will stay positive.

On seasonality, asking prices peaked in June and are down about 4% over the last six months.   I expect this measure of asking prices to start increasing seasonally in February, and to stay positive year-over-year.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Dec 28th
• Schedule for Week of Dec 30th

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2012 11:30:00 AM

From the WaPo (updated): Senators trade proposals into night to avoid ‘fiscal cliff’ (ht black dog)

Reid and McConnell have set a deadline of about 3 p.m. on Sunday for cinching a deal. That’s when they’re planning to convene caucus meetings of their respective members in separate rooms just off the Senate floor. At that point, the leaders will brief their rank and file on whether there has been significant progress and will determine whether there is enough support to press ahead with a proposal.
...
If all goes according to plan, the leaders would roll out the legislation Sunday night and hold a vote by at least midday Monday, giving the House the rest of New Year’s Eve to consider the measure.

According to the article, the sticking points are taxes for high income earners and "how to tax inherited estates".

Note: This type of "deadline" is just a target, and there probably won't be an update until later in the day.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2012 08:44:00 PM

Not much ... from the WaPo: Senators trade proposals into night to avoid ‘fiscal cliff’

Senate negotiators labored late into Saturday over a last-ditch plan to avert the “fiscal cliff,” struggling to resolve key differences over how many wealthy households should face higher income taxes in the new year and how to tax inherited estates.
...
As nightfall approached, top Democratic and Republican aides continued shuttling paperwork with the latest proposals back and forth between the two leaders’ offices, less than 50 steps apart.
...
If all goes according to plan, the leaders would roll out the legislation Sunday night and hold a vote by at least midday Monday, giving the House the rest of New Year’s Eve to consider the measure.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Dec 28th
• Schedule for Week of Dec 30th

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2012 05:13:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Dec 28, 2012.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The FDIC released its enforcement action activity for November 2012 this week. As a result, seven banks were removed and four banks were added. The changes leave the Unofficial Problem Bank List with 838 institutions with assets of $313.1 billion. A year ago, the list held 970 institutions with assets of $391.2 billion. For the month, the list count declined by 18 and assets fell $13.3 billion. The count decline of 18 matches the highest amount recorded back in April 2012.

The FDIC terminated actions against County Bank, Rehoboth Beach, DE ($341 million); Citizens State Bank - Midwest, Cavalier, ND ($109 million); Prime Alliance Bank, Woods Cross, UT ($104 million); Holbrook Co-operative Bank, Holbrook, MA ($94 million); and Security State Bank of Lewiston, Lewiston, MN ($66 million). The other removals were Hastings State Bank, Hastings, NE, ($136 million) and Hull Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD ($25 million) as they found merger partners.

The following four banks joined the list -- Lake Area Bank, Lindstrom, MN ($276 million); The Peoples Bank, Chestertown, MD ($247 million); WestSide Bank, Hiram, GA ($134 million); and First State Bank of Miami, Texas, Miami, TX ($50 million). The FDIC issued a Prompt Corrective Action order against Covenant Bank, Chicago, IL ($60 million).

After the passage of the fourth quarter, it is time for a refresh of the transition matrix. As seen in the table, there have been a total of 1,606 institutions with assets of $808.9 billion that have appeared on the list. Removals have totaled 768 institutions or nearly 48 percent of the total. Failures continue to be the leading removal cause as 347 institutions with assets of $290.4 billion have failed since appearing on the list. Removals from unassisted mergers and voluntary liquidations total 129 institutions. While there has been an acceleration in action terminations in 2012, the pace has slowed down some during the fourth quarter. In all, actions have been terminated against 292 institutions with assets of $129.6 billion, with 40 terminations occurring in this quarter.

Unofficial Problem Bank List
Change Summary
		Number of Institutions	Assets ($Thousands)
Start (8/7/2009)		389	276,313,429
Subtractions
	Action Terminated	97	(27,057,010)
	Unassisted Merger	26	(4,191,282)
	Voluntary Liquidation	2	(4,855,164)
	Failures	148	(182,228,947)
	Asset Change		(15,385,341)
Still on List at 12/28/2012		116	42,595,685
Additions		722	270,521,747
End (12/28/2012)		838	313,117,432
Intraperiod Deletions1
	Action Terminated	195	102,513,931
	Unassisted Merger	94	49,619,506
	Voluntary Liquidation	7	1,760,816
	Failures	199	108,189,630
	Total	495	262,083,883
1Institution not on 8/7/2009 or 12/28/2012 list but appeared on a weekly list.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Dec 28th
• Schedule for Week of Dec 30th