by Bill McBride on 12/29/2012 01:11:00 PM
Saturday, December 29, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending Dec 28th
The key report next week is the December employment report to be released on Friday. Other key reports include December auto sales on Wednesday, the December ISM manufacturing index, and the December ISM service index.
Reis might release their Q4 Office, Mall and Apartment vacancy rate reports this week.
Happy New Year to All! As usual, the Calculated Risk blog will be open all week.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for December. This is the last of the regional surveys for December. The consensus is an increase to 1.0 from -2.8 in November (above zero is expansion).
SIFMA recommends US markets close at 2:00 PM ET in advance of the New Year’s Day holiday.
Happy New Year! US markets are closed in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday.
9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index. The consensus is for an increase to 54.2, up from 52.8.
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for December.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction in November. The was at 49.5% in November, down from 51.7% in October. The employment index was at 48.4%, down from 52.1%, and the new orders index was at 50.3%, down from 54.2%. The consensus is for PMI to increase to 50.5. (above 50 is expansion).
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release two weeks of results for the mortgage purchase applications index this week.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in December. This is the third report using the new methodology, and the report last month (118,000) was somewhat close to the BLS report for private employment (the BLS reported 147,000 private sector jobs added in November).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 363 thousand from 350 thousand last week.
10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for December. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for Meeting of December 11-12, 2012. This will provide a little more details on the decision of the Fed to set thresholds for inflation and the unemployment rate.
All day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 15.1 million SAAR in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 15.5 million in November.
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate. Sales in November were boosted by some bounce back following Hurricane Sandy.
TrueCar is forecasting:
The December 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.6 million new car sales, up from 13.6 million in December 2011 and up from 15.5 million in November 2012Edmunds.com is forecasting:
... an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 15.4 million light vehicles
8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 157,000 non-farm payroll jobs in December; there were 146,000 jobs added in November.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 7.8% in December, up from 7.7% in November.
The second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through November.
The economy has added 5.6 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 including preliminary benchmark revision (5.0 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).
There are still 3.3 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007 (including benchmark revision).
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in orders.
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for a decrease to 54.5 from 54.7 in November. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
3:30 PM: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, "Systemic Risk", At the American Economic Association/American Finance Association Joint Luncheon, San Diego, California