by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2012 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:

Personal income increased $85.8 billion, or 0.6 percent ... in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.3 billion, or 0.4 percent..
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.6 percent in November, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in October. ... The price index for PCE decreased 0.2 percent in November, in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent in October. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased less than 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $436.7 billion in November, compared with $404.6 billion in October. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.6 percent in November, compared with 3.4 percent in October.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income increased more than expected in November and PCE for October was revised up.

The "two month method" for estimating Q4 PCE suggests PCE will increase close to 2.2% in Q4 - more growth than most expect - although this estimate is probably a little high because PCE was strong in September. Still better than expected ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2012 07:45:00 PM

On household formation from Cardiff Garcia at FT Alphaville: Another look at US household formation, and why it matters

James Sweeney of Credit Suisse has written one of the more optimistic (and convincing) notes we’ve come across about the near-term trajectory for US housing.

Its optimism is based mainly on its analysis of expected household formation growth, which Sweeney finds has been underestimated by most observers. The note includes a good discussion of the ways in which healthy household formation growth can have powerful multiplicative effects throughout the rest of the economy. ...

But the two really interesting points in the Sweeney note are that 1) household formation growth can grow meaningfully even under relatively pessimistic assumptions for the US economy, and 2) even modest assumptions of household formation growth can have an have an unexpectedly big impact on the rest of the economy.

And from the Credit Suisse research note:

So how many households will form? A reasonable estimate, in our view, is somewhere between the strong and base case views, meaning 6-8 million over the next five years. Demographics alone should create 5.7 million, with the rest driven by a labor market recovery that falls short of our strong scenario.

We need not assume such high numbers to demonstrate the powerful forces formation can unleash. Even the base case scenario of 5.7 million will drive a substantial pick-up in residential investment. The extremely low levels of housing starts and permits over the past few years means a large number of new housing units will likely need to be built.

I'll revisit household formation soon, but I think we will see even higher household formation than the Credit Suisse estimate. But even with 1.1 million households per year (plus 2nd home buying and demolitions), means housing starts will have to increase to 1.4 to 1.5 million in a few years (once the excess is absorbed).  That is almost double from the 770 or so thousand this year.

And here is Business Insider's list of the most important charts for 2012. They include two of my charts - the first showing the beginning of the recovery for housing, and the second that the drag from state and local governments is near the end.

Friday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income in November, and for 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. This will give us a preliminary estimate for Q4 PCE.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 9:55 AM, the final Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for December. The consensus is for a reading of 75.0.

• At 10:00 AM, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2012.

• At 11:00 AM, Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of -3, up from -6 in November (below zero is contraction).

by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2012 03:34:00 PM

There are two keys to the existing home sales report: 1) inventory, and 2) the number of conventional sales. I've written extensively about the decline in inventory, but here is more data on conventional sales. First, on distressed sales from the NAR (the inverse of conventional):

Distressed homes - foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts - accounted for 22 percent of November sales (12 percent were foreclosures and 10 percent were short sales), down from 24 percent in October and 29 percent in November 2011.

Unfortunately the NAR uses an unscientific survey to estimate distressed sales. However CoreLogic estimates the percent of distressed sales each month - and they were kind enough to send me their series. The first graph below shows CoreLogic's estimate of the distressed share starting in October 2007.

Note that the percent distressed increases every winter. This is because distressed sales happen all year, and conventional sales follow the normal seasonal pattern of stronger in the spring and summer, and weaker in the winter.

Click on graph for larger image.

The seasonal impact of distressed sales is why the Case-Shiller seasonal adjustment increased in recent years.

Also note that the percent of distressed sales over the last 6 months is at the lowest level since mid-2008, but still very high.  This is the lowest percent of distressed sales for November since 2007.

The second graph shows the NAR existing home series using the CoreLogic share of distressed sales.

If we just look at conventional sales (blue), sales declined from over 7 million in 2005 (graph starts in 2007) to a low of under 2.5 million.

Using this method (NAR's estimate for sales, CoreLogic estimate of share), conventional sales have recovered significantly. The NAR reported total sales were up 14.5% year-over-year in November, but using this method, conventional sales were up almost 20.9% year-over-year.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in November: 5.04 million SAAR, 4.8 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: Another Solid Report
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2012 01:30:00 PM

Here are a few more releases from this morning:

• From the Philly Fed: December Manufacturing Survey

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of ‑10.7 in November to 8.1 this month. This is the highest reading since April and is slightly above the reading before the post-storm decline in November.

Labor market conditions at the reporting firms improved marginally this month. The current employment index, at 3.6, registered its first positive reading in six months ...
The survey’s future indicators suggest improved optimism among the reporting manufacturers. The future general activity index increased from 20.0 to 30.9, its highest reading in three months. emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through December. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through November.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased in December, but is just back to 0. This is the highest combined level since May, but still suggests another weak reading for the ISM manufacturing index.

• Earlier this morning the BEA reported Q3 GDP increased at a 3.1% annualized rate, higher than the 2.7% estimated earlier. The upward revision was due to increases in the estimate of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), trade, and state and local governments. Although the revision for state and local governments was small, it moved to a positive contribution for the first time since Q3 2009.

This graph shows the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.

The blue bars are for residential investment (RI), and RI was a significant drag on GDP for several years. Now RI has added to GDP growth for the last 6 quarters (through Q3 2012).

The red bars are for state and local governments. Although not as large a negative as the worst of the housing bust (and much smaller spillover effects), this decline has been relentless and unprecedented. The good news is the drag appears to be ending.

I don't expect state and local governments will contribute much to GDP growth in 2013, but just stopping the drag will help.

• From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in October

U.S. house prices rose 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.2 percent increase in September was revised downward to a 0.0 percent change. For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. prices rose 5.6 percent. The U.S. index is 15.7 percent below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the July 2004 index level.

by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2012 11:29:00 AM

This was another solid report. Based on historical turnover rates, I think "normal" sales would be close to 5.0 million, so existing home sales at 5.04 million are pretty close to normal.

However a "normal" market would have very few distressed sales, so there is still a long ways to go.  One key to returning to "normal" are more conventional sales and fewer distressed sales. Not all areas report the percentage of distressed sales, but the areas that do have shown a sharp decline in distressed sales, and a sharp increase in conventional sales.

The NAR reported total sales were up 14.5% from November 2011, but conventional sales are probably up more than 20% from November 2011 (and distressed sales down). 

And what matters the most in the NAR's existing home sales report is inventory. It is active inventory that impacts prices (although the "shadow" inventory will keep prices from rising). For existing home sales, look at inventory first and then at the percent of conventional sales.

The NAR reported inventory decreased to 2.03 million units in November, down from 2.11 million in October. This is down 22.5% from November 2011, and down 30% from the inventory level in November 2005 (mid-2005 was when inventory started increasing sharply). This is the lowest level for the month of November since 2000.  Inventory will be even lower in December and January - the normal seasonal pattern - and then start increasing in February.

Important: The NAR reports active listings, and although there is some variability across the country in what is considered active, most "contingent short sales" are not included. "Contingent short sales" are strange listings since the listings were frequently NEVER on the market (they were listed as contingent), and they hang around for a long time - they are probably more closely related to shadow inventory than active inventory. However when we compare inventory to 2005, we need to remember there were no "short sale contingent" listings in 2005. In the areas I track, the number of "short sale contingent" listings is also down sharply year-over-year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows inventory by month since 2004. In 2005 (dark blue columns), inventory kept rising all year - and that was a clear sign that the housing bubble was ending.

This year (dark red for 2012) inventory is at the lowest level for the month of November since 2000, and inventory is sharply below the level in November 2005 (not counting contingent sales).   The months-of-supply has fallen to 4.8 months.  Since months-of-supply uses Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) inventory, and Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales, I expect months-of-supply to fall further over the next couple of months before increasing in February.

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales NSA in November (red column) are  above last year. Sales are well below the bubble years of 2005 and 2006.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in November: 5.04 million SAAR, 4.8 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales graphs