by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2012 09:01:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Marks Eighth Consecutive Month of Year-Over-Year Gains

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since June 2006 and the eighth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.2 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012*. Decreases in month-over-month home prices are expected as the housing market enters the offseason.
...
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide also increased on a year-over-year basis by 5.8 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.5 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012, the eighth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2011 and fall by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from October 2012 as sales exhibit a seasonal slowdown going into the winter.
...
“The housing recovery that started earlier in 2012 continues to gain momentum," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The recovery is geographically broad-based with almost all markets experiencing some appreciation. Sand and energy states continue to experience the most robust appreciation and some judicial foreclosure states are even recording increasing prices.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was down 0.2% in October, and is up 6.3% over the last year.

The index is off 27% from the peak - and is up 9.6% from the post-bubble low set in February (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).

The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for eight consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed earlier this year on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.

Since this index is not seasonally adjusted, it was expected to decline on a month-to-month basis in October, and will probably stay negative on a month-to-month basis until the March 2013 report is released. The key for the next several months will be to watch the year-over-year change.

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2012 09:07:00 PM

Tuesday economic releases:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Trulia Price & Rent Monitors for November. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

Here is another update using inventory numbers from HousingTracker / DeptofNumbers to track changes in listed inventory. Tom Lawler mentioned this last year.

According to the deptofnumbers.com for (54 metro areas), overall inventory is down 22% year-over-year and probably at the lowest level since the early '00s.

This graph shows the NAR estimate of existing home inventory through October (left axis) and the HousingTracker data for the 54 metro areas through early December.

Click on graph for larger image.

Since the NAR released their revisions for sales and inventory last year, the NAR and HousingTracker inventory numbers have tracked pretty well.

On a seasonal basis, housing inventory usually bottoms in December and January and then increases through the summer. So inventory will probably decline a little further over the next month or so, before increasing again next year.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in inventory for both the NAR and HousingTracker.

HousingTracker reported that the early December listings, for the 54 metro areas, declined 21.7% from the same period last year.

The year-over-year declines will probably start to get smaller since inventory is already very low. It seems very unlikely we will see 20%+ year-over-year declines next summer, but it does appear that inventory will be very low in 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2012 03:45:00 PM

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 15.54 million SAAR in November. That is up 15% from November 2011, and up 9% from the sales rate last month. This is the highest level of sales since December 2007.

This was above the consensus forecast of 15.0 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate), however some of the increase was a bounce back from Hurricane Sandy that negatively impacted sales at the end of October.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for November (red, light vehicle sales of 15.54 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales have averaged a 14.4 million annual sales rate this year through November, up from 12.7 million rate for the same period of 2011. Last year sales were depressed for several months (May through August) due to supply chain issues related to the tsunami in Japan.


The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession.

Most (or all) of the month-to-month decline in October was related to Hurricane Sandy, and some of the sharp increase this month was a bounce back.

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2012 01:59:00 PM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Reports 58,000 Completed Foreclosures in October

CoreLogic ... today released its National Foreclosure Report for October that provides data on completed U.S. foreclosures and the overall foreclosure inventory. According to CoreLogic, there were 58,000 completed foreclosures in the U.S. in October 2012, down from 70,000 in October 2011 representing a year-over-year decrease of 17 percent. On a month-over-month basis, completed foreclosures fell from 77,000* in September 2012 to the current 58,000, representing a decrease of 25 percent. As a basis of comparison, prior to the decline in the housing market in 2007, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month between 2000 and 2006. Completed foreclosures are an indication of the total number of homes actually lost to foreclosure. Since the financial crisis began in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.9 million completed foreclosures across the country.

Approximately 1.3 million homes, or 3.2 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the national foreclosure inventory as of October 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.6 percent, in October 2011. Month-over-month, the national foreclosure inventory was down 1.3 percent from September 2012 to October 2012. The foreclosure inventory is the share of all mortgaged homes in any stage of the foreclosure process.
...
“As a result of completed foreclosures and alternative disposition methods, the foreclosure inventory has declined by 9 percent year-to-date. This is good news for housing markets as we look forward to 2013,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Note: The foreclosure inventory reported by CoreLogic is lower than the number reported by LPS of 3.61% of mortgages or 1.8 million in foreclosure.

Many observers expected a "surge" in foreclosures this year, but that hasn't happened. However there are still a large number of properties in the foreclosure inventory in some states:

The five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of all mortgaged homes were: Florida (11.1 percent), New Jersey (7.7 percent), New York (5.3 percent), Illinois (5.0 percent) and Nevada (4.8 percent).

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2012 11:27:00 AM

Three key construction spending themes:

• Residential construction is usually the largest category for construction spending, but there was a huge collapse in spending following the housing bubble (as expected). Looking forward, private residential construction spending will be the largest category again very soon - but spending is still very low (at 1998 levels not adjusted for inflation).

• Private non-residential construction spending picked up last year mostly due to energy spending (power and electric), but spending on office buildings, hotels and malls is still very low.

• Public construction spending declined for several years, but the decline appears to be mostly over. Note: Public construction spending is mostly state and local spending, and the drag from state and local cutbacks appears to be ending.

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in October:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2012 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $872.1 billion, 1.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $860.4 billion. The October figure is 9.6 percent above the October 2011 estimate of $795.7 billion.

Both private and public construction spending increased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $592.1 billion, 1.6 percent above the revised September estimate of $582.7 billion. ... In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $280.1 billion, 0.8 percent above the revised September estimate of $277.7 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential spending is 57% below the peak in early 2006, and up 32% from the post-bubble low. Non-residential spending is 28% below the peak in January 2008, and up about 31% from the recent low.

Public construction spending is now 14% below the peak in March 2009 and just above the post-bubble low.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is now up 21%. Non-residential spending is also up 11% year-over-year mostly due to energy spending (power and electric). Public spending is down 1% year-over-year.

All Housing Investment and Construction Graphs