by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 12:10:00 PM

Note: This is the last inflation report before the September FOMC meeting (the August report will be released September 14th and the FOMC meeting is Sept 12th and 13th).

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% (1.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was virtually flat at 0.0% (0.6% annualized rate) in July. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.1% (1.1% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for July here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.0%, and core CPI rose 2.1%. Core PCE is for June and increased 1.8% year-over-year.

These measures suggest inflation is now at the Fed's target of 2% on a year-over-year basis and it appears the inflation rate is slowing. On a monthly basis (annualized), two of these measure were well below the Fed's target; trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.3%, Core CPI at 1.1% - although median CPI was at 2.5% and and Core PCE for June was at 2.5%. Based on initial data - and comparing to the increase in August 2011 - it is very likely that the August report will show a further decline in the year-over-year inflation rate.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 2 points in August to 37. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Continues To Improve in August

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved for a fourth consecutive month in August with a two-point gain to 37 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This gain builds on a six-point increase in July and brings the index to its highest level since February of 2007.

“From the builder’s perspective, current sales conditions, sales prospects for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers are all better than they have been in more than five years,” said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “While there is still much room for improvement, we have come a long way from the depths of the recession and the outlook appears to be brightening.”
...
Every HMI component posted gains in August. The components gauging current sales conditions and traffic of prospective buyers each rose three points, to 39 and 31, respectively, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months inched up one point to 44. All were at their highest levels in more than five years.

Regionally, builder confidence rose nine points to 42 in the Midwest and two points to 35 in the South, but declined nine points to 25 in the Northeast and three points to 40 in the West in August. For the August HMI release, NAHB is introducing an alternative trend comparison of regional HMIs by also showing a three-month moving average of each region’s index. The current three-month moving averages show a two-point decline to 29 in the Northeast, a five-point gain to 35 in the Midwest, a three-point gain to 32 in the South and a three-point gain to 38 in the West.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the August release for the HMI and the June data for starts (July housing starts will be released tomorrow). A reading of 37 was above the consensus.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.6 percent in July after having risen 0.1 percent in both May and June. Revisions to the rates of change for recent months left the level of the index in June little changed from its previous estimate. Manufacturing output rose 0.5 percent in July, the same rate of increase as was recorded for June. In July, the output of mines increased 1.2 percent, and the output of utilities rose 1.3 percent. At 98.0 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in July was 4.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.4 percentage point to 79.3 percent, a rate 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.5 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 79.3% is still 1.0 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 80.6% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in July to 98.0. This is 17.4% above the recession low, but still 2.7% below the pre-recession peak.

The consensus was for Industrial Production to increase 0.5% in July, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.2%. The increase in IP and Capacity Utilization was above expectations.

All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 08:30:00 AM

• From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the first time since October 2011, falling thirteen points to -5.9. At -5.5, the new orders index was below zero for a second consecutive month, and the shipments index fell six points to 4.1.
...
The index for number of employees inched lower, but remained positive at 16.5, suggesting a moderate increase in employment levels, and the average workweek index rose to 3.5.
...
Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally positive but lower than in July, indicating that respondents expected business conditions to improve little in the months ahead.

This was the first regional manufacturing survey released for August. The general business conditions index was worse than expected and new orders were down.

The Philly Fed index was especially weak in June and July, and the August index will be released tomorrow.

• From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in July, ending a streak of four consecutive 0.2 percent increases.

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.2% increase for CPI and a 0.2% increase in core CPI and makes QE3 more likely in September.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 06:00:00 AM

From Realtor.com: July 2012 Real Estate Data

The total US for-sale inventory of single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops (SFH/CTHCOPS) remains at historic lows across the country, with 1.866 million units for sale in July, down -19.25% compared to a year ago and -39.80% below its peak of 3.10 million units in September, 2007 when Realtor.com began monitoring these markets.

The median age of the inventory of for sale listings was 88 days in July 2012, up slightly from June (84), but -9.27% below the median age one year ago (July 2011). While the median age of the inventory is highly seasonal, the year-over-year decline is consistent with other data showing a significant improvement in market conditions compared to one year ago.

For sale inventories of SFH/CTHCOPS in July declined on an annual basis in all but two of the 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com, with for-sale inventory dropping -20% or more in 67 of the 146 markets covered. Eight out of 10 MSAs with the largest year-over-year declines in their for-sale inventories in July 2012 are in California.

Only two areas experienced a year-over-year increase in their for-sale inventories— Shreveport, LA (+23.06%), and Philadelphia, PA (+3.04%).

The NAR is scheduled to report July existing home sales and inventory next week on Wednesday, August 22nd. The key number in the NAR report will be inventory, and inventory will be down sharply again year-over-year in July.