Wednesday, August 15, 2012

NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates contraction, CPI unchanged in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 08:30:00 AM

• From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the first time since October 2011, falling thirteen points to -5.9. At -5.5, the new orders index was below zero for a second consecutive month, and the shipments index fell six points to 4.1.
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The index for number of employees inched lower, but remained positive at 16.5, suggesting a moderate increase in employment levels, and the average workweek index rose to 3.5.
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Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally positive but lower than in July, indicating that respondents expected business conditions to improve little in the months ahead.
This was the first regional manufacturing survey released for August. The general business conditions index was worse than expected and new orders were down.

The Philly Fed index was especially weak in June and July, and the August index will be released tomorrow.

From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
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The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in July, ending a streak of four consecutive 0.2 percent increases.
I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.2% increase for CPI and a 0.2% increase in core CPI and makes QE3 more likely in September.