by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2012 10:16:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 3.8 million job openings on the last business day of June, little changed from 3.7 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
The level of total nonfarm job openings in June was up from 2.4 million at the end of the recession in June 2009.
...
In June, the quits rate was unchanged for total nonfarm, total private, and government. The number of quits was 2.1 million in June, up from 1.8 million at the end of the recession in June 2009. ... Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for June, the most recent employment report was for July.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings increased in June to 3.762 million, up from 3.657 million in May. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 16% year-over-year compared to June 2011. This is the most job openings since mid-2008.

Quits decreased slightly in June, however quits are up about 9.5% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2012 08:52:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The Case-Shiller index released last week was for May. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® June Home Price Index Rises 2.5 Percent—Representing Fourth Consecutive Year-Over-Year Increase

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 2.5 percent in June 2012 compared to June 2011. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.3 percent in June 2012 compared to May 2012. The June 2012 figures mark the fourth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 3.2 percent in June 2012 compared to June 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 2.0 percent in June 2012 compared to May 2012, the fifth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that July home prices, including distressed sales, will rise by at least 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis from June 2012 and by 2.0 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2011.

“Home prices are responding positively to reductions in both visible and shadow inventory over the past year,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This trend is a bright spot because the decline in shadow inventory translates to fewer distressed sales, which helps sustain price appreciation.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.3% in May, and is up 2.5% over the last year.

The index is off 29% from the peak - and is up 7% from the post-bubble low set in February (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).

The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has turned positive.

This is the fourth consecutive month with a year-over-year increase, and excluding the tax credit bump, these are the first year-over-year increases since 2006.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2012 08:33:00 AM

From the WSJ: Fed Official Calls for Bond Buying

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, called on the Fed to launch an aggressive, open-ended bond buying program that the central bank would continue until economic growth picks up and unemployment starts falling again.

His call came in an interview with The Wall Street Journal ... His decision to speak out forcefully is a sign of the momentum building inside the Fed for a new phase of action.

Mr. Rosengren said the Fed should buy more mortgage-backed securities and possibly U.S. Treasury securities in an open-ended program, and state that it will continue to buy bonds "until we start seeing some pretty significant improvements in growth and income."

Rosengren isn't currently a voting member, but it does seem like momentum is building for QE3.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2012 09:25:00 PM

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will take questions on Tuesday, and his comments will be closely scrutinized for hints about QE3.

• On Tuesday, at 10:00 AM ET, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June will be released by the BLS. The number of job openings has generally been trending up for the last three years. "Quits" have been increasing too - quits are frequently a sign of more confidence in the labor market.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Trulia house asking Price Monitor for July will be released. This monitor is based on asking prices and is adjusted for seasonality and mix. This is a leading indicator for the repeat sales indexes. This monitor has been showing rising prices and will probably show another increase in July.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speaks at "A Teacher Town Hall Meeting". The event will be broadcast live and the Q&A might provide hints about QE3. The Twitter discussion is at hashtag: #FedTownHall

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for July will be released. The consensus is for credit to increase $10.5 billion.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2012 06:25:00 PM

Here is another update using inventory numbers from HousingTracker / DeptofNumbers to track changes in listed inventory. Tom Lawler mentioned this last year.

According to the deptofnumbers.com for (54 metro areas), inventory is off 22.8% compared to the same week last year. Unfortunately the deptofnumbers only started tracking inventory in April 2006.

This graph shows the NAR estimate of existing home inventory through June (left axis) and the HousingTracker data for the 54 metro areas through early August.

Click on graph for larger image.

Since the NAR released their revisions for sales and inventory last year, the NAR and HousingTracker inventory numbers have tracked pretty well.

On a seasonal basis, housing inventory usually bottoms in December and January and then starts to increase again through the summer. Inventory only increased a little this spring and has been declining for the last three months by this measure. It looks like inventory has peaked for this year.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in inventory for both the NAR and HousingTracker.

HousingTracker reported that the early August listings, for the 54 metro areas, declined 22.7% from the same period last year.

This decline in active inventory remains a huge story, and the lower level of inventory is pushing up house prices.

All current Existing Home Sales graphs