by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 03:30:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Last Friday FHFA released its GSE “Foreclosure Prevention Report” for Q1/2012, which has data on Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s foreclosure prevention activity, foreclosure and other “home forfeiture” activity, delinquencies, and REO. Starting with last quarter’s report, FHFA began showing individual state data, for folks who like to track such things. Here is the report.

Included in the report is the number of delinquent loans by length of delinquency. In some states the percentage of “seriously delinquent (90+) loans that have been delinquent for a year or more is astonishingly high. Below is a chart showing the serious delinquency rate for combined GSE conventional SF mortgages by state broken out by length of delinquency.

Click on graph for larger image.

Florida, of course, is still “off the charts” in terms of its SDQ rate, and 73% of the seriously-delinquent SF loans in Florida have been delinquent for a year or more.

For the combined GSEs, states with the highest “really super-seriously” delinquency rates – i.e., 365+ -- at the end of March were Florida (8.15%), New Jersey (4.27%), Nevada (3.65%), Illinois (2.84%), New York (2.83%), Maine (2.68%), and Maryland (2.54%). For Maryland vs. Virginia “fans,” the “really super-seriously” delinquency rate in Virginia in March was 0.56%.

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 12:47:00 PM

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and other house price indexes.

FNC released their April index data today. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 0.6% in April (Composite 100 index). The other RPIs (10-MSA, 20-MSA, 30-MSA) increased about 1.0% in April. These indices are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

The year-over-year trends continued to show improvement in April, with all four composite indexes down about 2.4% compared to April 2011. For the 10, 20, and 30 city indexes, this is the smallest year-over-year decline in the FNC index since 2007 (five years ago).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is based on the FNC index (four composites) through April 2012. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Some of the month-to-month gain is seasonal since this index is NSA. The key is the indexes are showing less of a year-over-year decline in April. If house prices have bottomed, the year-over-year decline should turn positive later this year or early in 2013.

The April Case-Shiller index will be released next Tuesday, June 26th.

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the housing market index (HMI) increased 1 point in June to 29 (May was revised down to 28, so this was unchanged). Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises One Point in June

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes gained one point in June from a slightly revised level in the previous month to rest at 29 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This is the highest level the index has attained since May of 2007.
“While the June HMI is in keeping with our forecast for gradually improving single-family home sales this year, recent economic reports that have shown some weakening in the pace of recovery likely factored into the marginal gain,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “In addition, builders across the country continue to report that overly tight lending conditions and inaccurate appraisals are major obstacles to completing sales at this time.”

...
In June, the HMI component measuring current sales conditions rose two points to 32, which is its highest level since April of 2007. Meanwhile, the components measuring sales expectations in the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers held unchanged at 34 and 23, respectively.

Regionally, the HMI results were mixed in June, with two areas of the country posting gains and two posting declines. The Midwest registered a five-point gain to 31 and the West registered a four-point gain to 33, while the Northeast and South each posted two-point declines, to 29 and 26, respectively.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the June release for the HMI and the April data for starts (May housing starts will be released tomorrow). A reading of 29 was at the consensus.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 08:59:00 AM

From the WSJ: Spanish Yields Surge; Greek Relief Wanes

Spain's 10-year government bond yield soared above 7% and equities lost early gains ...

"Greek election results are unlikely to resolve euro-zone uncertainty," said Barclays. "Instead, the focus should shift to the June 28-29 EC summit, the likely renegotiation of the Greek austerity package, and to Spanish yields."

Here are the Spanish and Italian 10-year yields from Bloomberg. The Spanish 10 year yield is up to 7.28%, and the Italian 10 year yield is at 6.16%.

Note: The preliminary results of the independent Spanish Bank Stress Tests are due today. This is the results of the tests by Oliver Wyman Ltd. and Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

On Thursday, June 21st, there is a meeting of the euro zone finance ministers, and the following week, starting on June 28th, is a two day European summit in Brussels.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2012 09:17:00 PM

The election in Greece was THE story on Sunday. New Democracy received the largest percentage of the vote - around 30% - and they still need to form a coalition government. There is no way they can meet the terms of the memorandum - so even if a government is formed, this will blow up again without further concessions. Meanwhile the Greek economy is collapsing and the unemployment rate is at record levels. Very sad.

For a few questions about what comes next, see from Joseph Cotterill at the Financial Times Alphaville: Greece, the post-election questions

• At 10:00 AM ET on Monday, the June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 29, unchanged from May. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

The Asian markets are up tonight. The Nikkei is up about 2%, and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.5%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P 500 futures are up about 9, and Dow futures are up 90.

Oil: WTI futures are up to $85.21 (this is down from $109.77 in February) and Brent is up to $99.20 per barrel.

Saturday:
• Summary for Week Ending June 15th
• Schedule for Week of June 17th
For the monthly economic question contest (three more questions for June):