by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2012 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after having gained 1.0 percent in April. A decrease of 0.4 percent for manufacturing production in May partially reversed a large increase in April. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines advanced 0.9 percent in May, while the output of utilities rose 0.8 percent. At 97.3 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 4.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry declined 0.2 percentage point to 79.0 percent, a rate 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.2 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 79.0% is still 1.3 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 80.6% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production declined in May to 97.3. This is 16.6% above the recession low, but still 3.4% below the pre-recession peak.

The consensus was for no change in Industrial Production in April, and for no change in Capacity Utilization at 79.2%. This was below expectations.

All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded slightly over the month. The general business conditions index fell fifteen points, but remained positive at 2.3. The new orders index declined six points to 2.2, and the shipments index fell a steep nineteen points to 4.8. Price indexes were markedly lower, with the prices paid index falling eighteen points to 19.6 and the prices received index dropping eleven points to 1.0. Employment indexes also retreated, though they still indicated a small increase in employment levels and a slightly longer average workweek.

The employment index declined to 12.4 from 20.5.

This is the first regional manufacturing survey released for June, and this was well below the consensus forecast of 13.8.

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2012 09:58:00 PM

It seems like it is all about Europe, but there are several US economic indicators to be released tomorrow:

• At 8:30 AM ET, The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for June will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 13.8, down from 17.1 in May (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production in May, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 79.2%.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for June) will be released. The consensus is for sentiment to decline to 77.5 from 79.3 in May.

• At 10:00 AM, the BLS will release the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report for May 2012.

But most of the discussion tomorrow will be about Greece, Spain, Italy and the rest of Europe.

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2012 06:21:00 PM

My understanding is the Greek polls close at noon ET on Sunday. According to the Athens News: First safe election estimation to be given at 21.30 on Sunday

The first "safe" estimate of the result of Sunday's repeat general elections is expected to be released at around 9:30 on Sunday night, according the IT firm Singular Logic, which has been assigned the job of collecting and transmitting the results of voting throughout the country.

9:30 PM Athens time is 2:30 PM ET.

And from the Athens News: Quarterly unemployment hits record 22.6%

Unemployment hit a record high in the first quarter of 2012, data showed on Thursday ... The jobless rate hit 22.6 percent in the first three months of the year - double the euro zone average ... The statistics service said the number officially unemployed reached 1.12 million in the first quarter, up 57.3 percent year-on-year

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2012 03:54:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: Luxury hotels on top in weekly results

Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 1.3% increase to 68.5%, ADR increased 5.1% to $107.48 and RevPAR rose 6.5% to $73.59.

Hotel occupancy, ADR and RevPAR have improved from 2011, and occupancy is back close to normal. ADR is now back to precession levels.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2012, yellow is for 2011, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.

Looking forward, leisure travel usually increases over the summer months, and occupancy rates will probably average 70% for the next couple of months. So far it looks like 2012 will have higher occupancy than 2011, and be close to the pre-rececession median. Hotels have come a long way since 2008 when I was writing about The Coming Hotel Bust. But it will be sometime before investment increases again.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com