by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2012 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending June 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 380,000. The 4-week moving average was 382,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 378,500.

The previous week was revised up from 377,000 to 380,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 382,000.

The average has been between 363,000 and 384,000 all year, and this is near the high for the year.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

This was above to the consensus forecast of 375,000.

All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2012 10:25:00 PM

The Greek election is this coming Sunday, and the polls will close at noon ET. The election will probably be very close between "New Democracy" and "Syriza".

The 1st place party gets a 50 seat bonus (out of 300 total seats) and the parties split the remaining seats by the percent of the vote (excluding all parties with less than 3% of the vote).

From Merrill Lynch today:

[T]he baseline scenario [is ]that Greece gets a pro-program government - most likely led by New Democracy and supported by Pasok ... the probability of a disorderly Greek exit from the Euro is significantly reduced.
...
Should the less likely scenario of an anti-program government led by Syriza materialize, however, our markets would probably trade as if Greece is on the path of a disorderly exit from the Euro.

Sunday will be the new Monday once again!

On Thursday:


• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for May will be released. The consensus is for headline CPI to decline 0.2% (with the decline in energy prices). The consensus is for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decline to 375 thousand from 377 thousand last week.

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2012 07:49:00 PM

From DataQuick: More Gains for Southern California Home Sales and Median Prices

Last month’s total Southland sales rose nearly 21 percent compared with a year ago, and activity increased across the home-price spectrum. But the gains were strongest above $300,000. The volume of transactions in lower-cost markets has been restrained by, among other things, the dwindling inventories of homes for sale, especially foreclosures.
...
In May, a total of 22,192 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That was up 15.1 percent from 19,284 in April, and up 20.6 percent from 18,394 in May 2011.
...
On a year-over-year basis, Southland home sales have increased for five consecutive months, with last month’s 20.6 percent annual gain the largest in the series. Sales have also increased year-over-year in nine out of the last ten months. Still, last month’s sales were 14.5 percent lower than the average sales tally for all the months of May since 1988.

The month-to-month and year-over-year increases in sales last month would not have been as great if this May hadn’t had one extra business day on which sales could close. While last month had 22 business days, this April and May 2011 had 21 business days.
...
Distressed sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and short sales – made up 44.8 percent of last month’s resale market. That was the lowest level since the figure was 44.4 percent in March 2008.

The percent of distressed sales is still very high, but this is the lowest level since March 2008.

The median price is being impacted by the mix and isn't useful for measuring house price changes (with fewer low end distressed sales, the median has increased).

The NAR is scheduled to report May existing home sales and inventory next week on Thursday, June 21st.

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2012 04:28:00 PM

From Professor Tim Duy: Is Anyone Answering the Phones at the ECB?. Excerpt:

It is never a good sign when the monetary authority - the lender of last resort - is no longer willing to buy your bonds. If the ECB sees only risk at these rates, why should private investors jump into the pool?

Honestly, I find it incomprehensible to believe that the ECB will not soon come to the aid of Spain and Italy with additional bond purchases. Only the most irresponsible policy body would take such a risk. To not do so almost guarantees the destruction of the Eurozone and a deepening recession if not depression throughout Europe. They cannot possibly believe that fiscal and structural reforms will bear sufficient fruit in any reasonable time frame. Nor can they possibly believe that Spain and Italy can implement a IMF-type structural reform program in the absence of the competitive boost provided by currency devaluation.

Or can they? If they do believe these things - that they can do no more, the job is entirely on the shoulders of fiscal policymakers - then we all need to be afraid, very afraid. Because when the ECB fully abdicates its role as a provider of financial stability for the Eurozone, all Hell is going to break loose.

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2012 01:40:00 PM

From Realtor.com: May 2012 Real Estate Data

On the national level, inventory of for-sale single family homes, condominiums, townhouses and co-ops declined by -20.07% in May 2012 compared to a year ago, and declined in all but two of the 146 markets covered by REALTOR.com.

The median age of the inventory fell -9.78% on a year-over-year basis last month, and the median national list price increased 3.17% last month compared to May 2011.

Signs of recovery are evident in a growing number of markets that were once the epicenter of the housing crisis, and older industrialized areas in the Northeast and the Midwest are showing emerging signs of weaknesses. For example, the recovery process that began in Florida approximately one year ago has since spread to Phoenix and most recently California. At the same time, markets such as Reading, PA, Allentown, PA and Milwaukee, WI continue to lag behind the rest of the market.

Realtor.com also reports that inventory was up 2.0% from the April level.

The NAR is scheduled to report May existing home sales and inventory next week on Thursday, June 21st.