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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Look Ahead: CPI, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Greece

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2012 10:25:00 PM

The Greek election is this coming Sunday, and the polls will close at noon ET. The election will probably be very close between "New Democracy" and "Syriza".

The 1st place party gets a 50 seat bonus (out of 300 total seats) and the parties split the remaining seats by the percent of the vote (excluding all parties with less than 3% of the vote).

From Merrill Lynch today:

[T]he baseline scenario [is ]that Greece gets a pro-program government - most likely led by New Democracy and supported by Pasok ... the probability of a disorderly Greek exit from the Euro is significantly reduced.
Should the less likely scenario of an anti-program government led by Syriza materialize, however, our markets would probably trade as if Greece is on the path of a disorderly exit from the Euro.
Sunday will be the new Monday once again!

On Thursday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for May will be released. The consensus is for headline CPI to decline 0.2% (with the decline in energy prices). The consensus is for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decline to 375 thousand from 377 thousand last week.