by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2012 04:45:00 PM

LPS released their First Look report for April today. LPS reported that the percent of loans delinquent increased slightly in April from March, and declined year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process was unchanged and remained at a very high level.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) increased to 7.12% from 7.09% in March. The percent of delinquent loans is still significantly above the normal rate of around 4.5% to 5%. The percent of delinquent loans peaked at 10.97%, so delinquencies have fallen over half way back to normal. Note: There is a seasonal pattern for delinquencies, and it is not unusual to see an increase in April after a sharp decline in March.

The following table shows the LPS numbers for April 2012, and also for last month (March 2012) and one year ago (April 2011).

LPS: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Apr-12	Mar-12	Apr-11
Delinquent	7.12%	7.09%	7.97%
In Foreclosure	4.14%	4.14%	4.14%
Number of loans:
Loans Less than 90 days	1,927,000	1,888,000	2,243,000
Loans More than 90 days	1,595,000	1,643,000	1,961,000
Loans In foreclosure	2,048,000	2,060,000	2,184,000
Total	5,570,000	5,591,000	6,388,000

The number of delinquent loans is down about 16% year-over-year (682,000 fewer mortgages delinquent), and the number of loans in the foreclosure process is down 136,000 year-over-year (the percent in foreclosure is unchanged, but the number of total loans has declined).

The percent of loans less than 90 days delinquent is about normal, but the percent (and number) of loans 90+ days delinquent and in the foreclosure process are still very high.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2012 02:34:00 PM

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by +0.9% (2.3 billion vehicle miles) for March 2012 as compared with March 2011. Travel for the month is estimated to be 251.4 billion vehicle miles.

The following graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven.

Even with the year-over-year increase in March, the rolling 12 month total is mostly moving sideways.

Click on graph for larger image.

In the early '80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months.

Currently miles driven has been below the previous peak for 52 months - and still counting.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change from the same month in the previous year.

This is the fourth consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in miles driven.

Even though gasoline prices were up sharply earlier this year, prices also increased quickly last year in March and April - so we might not see a year-over-year decline in miles driven in the coming months.

The lack of growth in miles driven over the last 4+ years is probably due to a combination of factors: the great recession and the lingering effects, the high price of gasoline - and the aging of the overall population.

As I noted last month, HS Dent has a graph of gasoline demand by age (see page 13 of Age of Consumer demand curves based on Census Bureau data) - and this data shows that gasoline demand peaks around age 50 and then starts to decline. So the flattening of miles driven is probably, at least partially, another impact from the aging of the baby boomers (ht Brian).

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2012 11:18:00 AM

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and RadarLogic indexes.

FNC released their March index data today. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 0.5% in March (Composite 100 index). The other RPIs (10-MSA, 20-MSA, 30-MSA) increased about 0.8% in March. These indices are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

The year-over-year trends continued to show improvement in March, with the Composite 100 index down only 2.4% compared to March 2011. This is the smallest year-over-year decline in the FNC index since 2007.

The year-to-year declines in the largest housing markets, as indicated by the 10- and 30-MSA composites, are now below 3.0%, the slowest year-over-year decline since 2007.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is based on the FNC index (four composites) through March 2012. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

The indexes are showing less of a year-over-year decline in March. If house prices have bottomed, the year-over-year decline should turn positive later this year or early in 2013.

The March Case-Shiller index will be released next Tuesday.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2012 08:44:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic activity increased in April

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.11 in April from –0.44 in March. ...

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to –0.06 in April from +0.02 in March, falling below zero for the first time since November 2011. April’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests growth was near trend in April.

According to the Chicago Fed:

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2012 10:49:00 PM

There are no major economic releases scheduled for Monday. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks in Tokyo on monetary policy at 5:15 AM ET, and at 8:30 AM, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April is scheduled to be released.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight. The Nikkei is up about 0.3%, and the Shanghai Composite is down 0.4%. On China, here is a worrisome article from the Financial Times: China buyers defer raw material cargos

Chinese consumers of thermal coal and iron ore are asking traders to defer cargos and – in some cases – defaulting on their contracts, in the clearest sign yet of the impact of the country’s economic slowdown on the global raw materials markets.

The deferrals and defaults have only emerged in the last few days ...
Excerpt with permission

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P 500 futures are up about 5, and Dow futures are up 40.

Oil: WTI futures are down to $91.49 (this is down from $109.77 in February) and Brent is at $107.24 per barrel.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending May 18th
• Schedule for Week of May 20th

For the monthly economic question contest (for data to be released Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday):