by Bill McBride on 5/19/2012 01:31:00 PM
Saturday, May 19, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending May 18th
There are two key housing reports to be released this week: April existing home sales on Tuesday, and April new home sales on Wednesday.
Other key reports include durable goods on Thursday, and two regional manufacturing surveys.
Note: The FDIC might release the Q1 Quarterly Bank Profile this week.
5:15 AM ET: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks in Tokyo on monetary policy.
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April). This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The consensus is for sales of 4.66 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in March 2012 were 4.48 million SAAR.
Housing economist Tom Lawler is forecasting the NAR will report sales of 4.53 million in April.
A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. The consensus is for a decrease to 11 for this survey from 14 in April (above zero is expansion).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the March sales rate.
The consensus is for an increase in sales to 335 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in April from 328 thousand in March. This might be a little low based on recent builder comments and reports, and the homebuilder confidence survey. Watch for upward revisions to prior reports.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March 2012. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be essentially unchanged at 371 thousand compared to 370 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.
10:30 AM: New York Fed President William C. Dudley will speak on the regional economy and participate in a Q&A session with media. The New York Fed might release the Q1 2012 Report on Household Debt and Credit
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for May. The index was at 3 in April (above zero is expansion).
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 77.8.
SIFMA recommends US markets close at 2:00 PM ET in advance of the Memorial Day Holiday on May 28th.